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Civil Wars and Party Systems

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  • John Ishiyama

Abstract

type="main"> This article examines the effects of civil wars on the characteristics of postconflict party systems, in terms of fractionalization, whether a dominant party emerges, and party systems stability. Data were collected for 92 developing countries, 44 of which experienced a civil war from 1975 to 2009. Regression and logistic regression analyses are conducted to examine the impact of civil wars, while controlling for a number of other variables. This article finds no relationship between civil war and fractionalization, but does find that intense, bloodier civil wars tend to produce party systems that are dominant-party systems with less electoral volatility than transitional states that did not experience a civil war. These results suggest support for the argument that particularly bloody civil wars are likely to have an especially powerful freezing effect on party systems (and may not lead to fully competitive party politics).

Suggested Citation

  • John Ishiyama, 2014. "Civil Wars and Party Systems," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 95(2), pages 425-447, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:socsci:v:95:y:2014:i:2:p:425-447
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/ssqu.12020
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    1. José G. Montalvo & Marta Reynal-Querol, 2005. "Ethnic Polarization, Potential Conflict, and Civil Wars," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 796-816, June.
    2. Erdmann, Gero & Basedau, Matthias, 2007. "Problems of Categorizing and Explaining Party Systems in Africa," GIGA Working Papers 40, GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies.
    3. Leonard Wantchekon & Zvika Neeman, 2002. "A Theory of Post-Civil War Democratization," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 14(4), pages 439-464, October.
    4. Roberts, Kenneth M. & Wibbels, Erik, 1999. "Party Systems and Electoral Volatility in Latin America: A Test of Economic, Institutional, and Structural Explanations," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 93(3), pages 575-590, September.
    5. Mehmet Gurses & T. David Mason, 2008. "Democracy Out of Anarchy: The Prospects for Post‐Civil‐War Democracy," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 89(2), pages 315-336, June.
    6. José Garcia Montalvo & Marta Reynal-Querol, 2004. "Ethnic polarization, potential conflict and civil wars," Economics Working Papers 770, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Mar 2005.
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