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Defying the Rally During COVID‐19 Pandemic: A Regression Discontinuity Approach

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  • Enrijeta Shino
  • Michael Binder

Abstract

Objective Do people set aside their partisan differences and rally around elected officials during a pandemic? President Trump's delegation of responsibility to the states during the COVID‐19 pandemic placed governors on the frontlines of the battle; some have shined and garnered positive national attention, others have wilted under the pressure of the national spotlight. Methods We use regression discontinuity design and exploit a discontinuity in the state's political events to assess the support of a governor's response to the pandemic. Results Using survey data from Florida's registered voters, we find that Governor DeSantis's approval dropped by 7 percentage points following his “Safer at Home” order press conference on April 1. Conclusion Our results suggest that under certain circumstances partisanship can blunt a “rally around the flag” effect. This finding provides context to understanding when and under which circumstances elected officials can expect increases (or decreases) in public support.

Suggested Citation

  • Enrijeta Shino & Michael Binder, 2020. "Defying the Rally During COVID‐19 Pandemic: A Regression Discontinuity Approach," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 101(5), pages 1979-1994, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:socsci:v:101:y:2020:i:5:p:1979-1994
    DOI: 10.1111/ssqu.12844
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mueller, John E., 1970. "Presidential Popularity from Truman to Johnson1," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 64(1), pages 18-34, March.
    2. McCrary, Justin, 2008. "Manipulation of the running variable in the regression discontinuity design: A density test," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 698-714, February.
    3. Kernell, Samuel, 1978. "Explaining Presidential Popularity: How Ad Hoc Theorizing, Misplaced Emphasis, and Insufficient Care in Measuring One's Variables Refuted Common Sense and Led Conventional Wisdom Down the Path of Anom," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 72(2), pages 506-522, June.
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