IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/rgscpp/v13y2021is1p109-137.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

On the link between temperature and regional COVID‐19 severity: Evidence from Italy

Author

Listed:
  • Vicente Rios
  • Lisa Gianmoena

Abstract

This study analyzes the link between temperature and COVID‐19 incidence in a sample of Italian regions during the period that covers the first epidemic wave of 2020. To that end, Bayesian model averaging techniques are used to analyze the relevance of temperature together with a set of additional climatic, demographic, social, and health policy factors. The robustness of individual predictors is measured through posterior inclusion probabilities. The empirical analysis provides conclusive evidence on the role played by temperature given that it appears as one of the most relevant determinants reducing regional coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) severity. The strong negative link observed in our baseline analysis is robust to the specification of priors, the scale of analysis, the correction of measurement errors in the data due to under‐reporting, the time window considered, and the inclusion of spatial effects in the model. In a second step, we compute relative importance metrics that decompose the variability explained by the model. We find that cross‐regional temperature differentials explain a large share of the observed variation on the number of infections.

Suggested Citation

  • Vicente Rios & Lisa Gianmoena, 2021. "On the link between temperature and regional COVID‐19 severity: Evidence from Italy," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(S1), pages 109-137, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:rgscpp:v:13:y:2021:i:s1:p:109-137
    DOI: 10.1111/rsp3.12472
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/rsp3.12472
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/rsp3.12472?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kelejian, Harry H. & Murrell, Peter & Shepotylo, Oleksandr, 2013. "Spatial spillovers in the development of institutions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 297-315.
    2. Yu, Jihai & de Jong, Robert & Lee, Lung-fei, 2012. "Estimation for spatial dynamic panel data with fixed effects: The case of spatial cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 167(1), pages 16-37.
    3. Giuseppe Arbia & Francesca Petrarca, 2011. "Effects of MAUP on spatial econometric models," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 173-185, October.
    4. Mark F. J. Steel, 2020. "Model Averaging and Its Use in Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 58(3), pages 644-719, September.
    5. Luis Orea & Inmaculada C. Álvarez, 2020. "How effective has been the Spanish lockdown to battle COVID-19? A spatial analysis of the coronavirus propagation across provinces," Working Papers 2020-03, FEDEA.
    6. Zuber Verena & Strimmer Korbinian, 2011. "High-Dimensional Regression and Variable Selection Using CAR Scores," Statistical Applications in Genetics and Molecular Biology, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-27, July.
    7. Rios, Vicente & Gianmoena, Lisa, 2020. "The link between quality of government and regional resilience in Europe," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(5), pages 1064-1084.
    8. Joyee Ghosh & Andrew E. Ghattas, 2015. "Bayesian Variable Selection Under Collinearity," The American Statistician, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 69(3), pages 165-173, August.
    9. Nikos Kapitsinis, 2020. "The underlying factors of the COVID‐19 spatially uneven spread. Initial evidence from regions in nine EU countries," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(6), pages 1027-1045, December.
    10. Zeugner, Stefan & Feldkircher, Martin, 2015. "Bayesian Model Averaging Employing Fixed and Flexible Priors: The BMS Package for R," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 68(i04).
    11. Roberto Ezcurra & Vicente Rios, 2019. "Quality of government and regional resilience in the European Union. Evidence from the Great Recession," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 98(3), pages 1267-1290, June.
    12. Lung-fei Lee & Jihai Yu, 2012. "QML Estimation of Spatial Dynamic Panel Data Models with Time Varying Spatial Weights Matrices," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 31-74, March.
    13. Nicholas Charron & Lewis Dijkstra & Victor Lapuente, 2014. "Regional Governance Matters: Quality of Government within European Union Member States," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(1), pages 68-90, January.
    14. Lee, Lung-fei & Yu, Jihai, 2010. "A Spatial Dynamic Panel Data Model With Both Time And Individual Fixed Effects," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(2), pages 564-597, April.
    15. Gromping, Ulrike, 2007. "Estimators of Relative Importance in Linear Regression Based on Variance Decomposition," The American Statistician, American Statistical Association, vol. 61, pages 139-147, May.
    16. Roberto Benedetti & Federica Piersimoni & Giacomo Pignataro & Francesco Vidoli, 2020. "Identification of spatially constrained homogeneous clusters of COVID‐19 transmission in Italy," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(6), pages 1169-1187, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Miriam Hortas-Rico & Vicente Rios, 2022. "Does women´s political empowerment matter for income inequality?," Working Papers. Collection A: Public economics, governance and decentralization 2206, Universidade de Vigo, GEN - Governance and Economics research Network.
    2. Mehmet Ronael & Tüzin Baycan, 2022. "Place-based factors affecting COVID-19 incidences in Turkey," Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 1053-1086, October.
    3. Tüzin Baycan & Suat Tuysuz, 2022. "Special Feature on social, economic, and spatial impacts of COVID-19 pandemic in Turkey," Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 1041-1051, October.
    4. Louafi Bouzouina & Karima Kourtit & Peter Nijkamp, 2022. "Impact of immobility and mobility activities on the spread of COVID‐19: Evidence from European countries," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(S1), pages 6-20, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jin, Fei & Lee, Lung-fei & Yu, Jihai, 2020. "First difference estimation of spatial dynamic panel data models with fixed effects," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    2. Triki, Mohamed Bilel, 2019. "The Italian wage curve revisited: A local and spatial cointegration," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 55, pages 73-90.
    3. Júlia Gallego Ziero Uhr & André Luis Squarize Chagas, Daniel de Abreu Pereira Uhr, Renan Porn Peres, 2017. "A study on environmental infractions for Brazilian municipalities: a spatial dynamic panel approach," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2017_13, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    4. Taşpınar, Süleyman & Doğan, Osman & Bera, Anil K., 2017. "GMM gradient tests for spatial dynamic panel data models," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 65-88.
    5. Niu, Honglei & Lekse, William, 2018. "Carbon emission effect of urbanization at regional level: Empirical evidence from China," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 12, pages 1-31.
    6. Jesús Peiró‐Palomino & Andrés J. Picazo‐Tadeo & Vicente Rios, 2020. "Well‐being in European regions: Does government quality matter?," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 99(3), pages 555-582, June.
    7. LeSage, James P. & Chih, Yao-Yu & Vance, Colin, 2019. "Markov Chain Monte Carlo estimation of spatial dynamic panel models for large samples," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 107-125.
    8. Song, Ge & Ren, Gaofeng, 2022. "Spatial response of cultivated land use efficiency to the maize structural adjustment policy in the "Sickle Bend" region of China: An empirical study from the cold area of northeast," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    9. Hanen Ragoubi & Zouheir Mighri, 2021. "Spillover effects of trade openness on CO2 emissions in middle‐income countries: A spatial panel data approach," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(3), pages 835-877, June.
    10. Sun, Yiguo & Malikov, Emir, 2018. "Estimation and inference in functional-coefficient spatial autoregressive panel data models with fixed effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 203(2), pages 359-378.
    11. Eleonora Cutrini, 2023. "Postcrisis recovery in the regions of Europe: Does institutional quality matter?," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(1), pages 5-29, January.
    12. Vinko Muštra & Blanka Šimundić & Zvonimir Kuliš, 2020. "Does innovation matter for regional labour resilience? The case of EU regions," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 955-970, October.
    13. Riccardo (Jack) Lucchetti & Luca Pedini, 2020. "ParMA: Parallelised Bayesian Model Averaging for Generalised Linear Models," Working Papers 2020:28, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    14. Francesc Amat & Pablo Beramendi & Miriam Hortas-Rico & Vicente Rios, 2020. "How inequality shapes political participation: The role of spatial patterns of political competition," Working Papers. Collection B: Regional and sectoral economics 2002, Universidade de Vigo, GEN - Governance and Economics research Network.
    15. Andrés Rodríguez‐Pose & Chiara Burlina, 2021. "Institutions and the uneven geography of the first wave of the COVID‐19 pandemic," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(4), pages 728-752, September.
    16. Anna Sokolova, 2023. "Marginal Propensity to Consume and Unemployment: a Meta-analysis," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 813-846, December.
    17. Cristian Barra & Nazzareno Ruggiero, 2022. "On the impact of knowledge and institutional spillovers on RIS efficiency. Evidence from Italian regional level," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(2), pages 702-752, June.
    18. Burridge, Peter & Iacone, Fabrizio & Lazarová, Štěpána, 2015. "Spatial effects in a common trend model of US city-level CPI," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 87-98.
    19. Roman Horvath & Ali Elminejad & Tomas Havranek, 2020. "Publication and Identification Biases in Measuring the Intertemporal Substitution of Labor Supply," Working Papers IES 2020/32, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Sep 2020.
    20. Peiró-Palomino, Jesús & Perugini, Francesco, 2022. "Regional innovation disparities in Italy: The role of governance," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 46(4).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:rgscpp:v:13:y:2021:i:s1:p:109-137. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=1757-7802 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.