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A Bayesian Measure of Poverty in the Developing World

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  • Zhou Xun
  • Michel Lubrano

Abstract

We propose a new methodology to revise the international poverty line (IPL) after Ravallion et al. (2009) using the same database, but augmented with new variables to take into account social inclusion in the definition of poverty along the lines of Atkinson and Bourguignon (2001). We provide an estimation of the world income distribution and of the corresponding number of poor people in the developing world. Our revised IPL is based on an augmented two‐regime model estimated using a Bayesian approach, which allows us to take into account uncertainty when defining the reference group of countries where the IPL applies. The influence of weighting by population is discussed, as well as the IPL revision proposed in Deaton (2010). We also discuss the impact of using the new 2011 PPP and the recent IPL revision made by the World Bank.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhou Xun & Michel Lubrano, 2018. "A Bayesian Measure of Poverty in the Developing World," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 64(3), pages 649-678, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:revinw:v:64:y:2018:i:3:p:649-678
    DOI: 10.1111/roiw.12295
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    1. repec:pri:rpdevs:deaton_price_indexes_inequality_and_the_measurement_of_world_poverty_aer. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Martin Ravallion & Gaurav Datt & Dominique van de Walle, 1991. "Quantifying Absolute Poverty In The Developing World," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 37(4), pages 345-361, December.
    3. Angus Deaton, 2005. "Measuring Poverty in a Growing World (or Measuring Growth in a Poor World)," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(1), pages 1-19, February.
    4. Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 2006. "The World Distribution of Income: Falling Poverty and … Convergence, Period," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 121(2), pages 351-397.
    5. Angus Deaton, 2010. "Price Indexes, Inequality, and the Measurement of World Poverty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(1), pages 5-34, March.
    6. Angus Deaton, 2005. "ERRATUM: Measuring Poverty in a Growing World (or Measuring Growth in a Poor World)," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(2), pages 395-395, May.
    7. Van den Bosch, Karel & Callan, Tim & Estivill, Jordi & Hausman, Piette & Jeandidier, Bruno & Muffels, Ruud & Yfantopoulos, John, 1993. "A Comparison of Poverty in Seven European Countries and Regions Using Subjective and Relative Measures," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 6(3), pages 235-259.
    8. Shaohua Chien & Martin Ravallion, 2001. "How did the world's poorest fare in the 1990s?," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 47(3), pages 283-300, September.
    9. Menno Pradhan & Martin Ravallion, 2000. "Measuring Poverty Using Qualitative Perceptions Of Consumption Adequacy," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(3), pages 462-471, August.
    10. Arie Kapteyn & Peter Kooreman & Rob Willemse, 1988. "Some Methodological Issues in the Implementation of Subjective Poverty Definitions," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 23(2), pages 222-242.
    11. Bruce E. Hansen, 2000. "Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(3), pages 575-604, May.
    12. Ravallion, Martin & Datt, Gaurav & van de Walle, Dominique, 1991. "Quantifying Absolute Poverty in the Developing World," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 37(4), pages 345-361, December.
    13. repec:pri:rpdevs:presidential%20address%2017january%202010%20all.pdf is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Theo Goedhart & Victor Halberstadt & Arie Kapteyn & Bernard van Praag, 1977. "The Poverty Line: Concept and Measurement," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 12(4), pages 503-520.
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    Cited by:

    1. Michel Lubrano & Zhou Xun, 2021. "The Bayesian approach to poverty measurement," AMSE Working Papers 2133, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    2. Michel Lubrano & Zhou Xun, 2023. "The Bayesian approach to poverty measurement," Post-Print halshs-04135764, HAL.
    3. Michel Lubrano & Zhou Xun, 2023. "The Bayesian approach to poverty measurement," Post-Print hal-04347292, HAL.
    4. Sara Mota Cardoso & Aurora A. C. Teixeira, 2020. "The Focus on Poverty in the Most Influential Journals in Economics: A Bibliometric Analysis of the “Blue Ribbon” Journals," Poverty & Public Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(1), pages 10-42, March.

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