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Liberalizing NAFTA Rules of Origin: A Dynamic CGE Analysis

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  • Patrick Georges

Abstract

Most computable general‐equilibrium (CGE) studies assessing the welfare impact of moving from a North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) to a deeper form of integration, for example a customs union (CU), typically proxy the integration as the adoption of a common external tariff toward the rest of the world. However, a CU is also an arrangement that allows for the elimination of FTAs' preferential rules of origin (ROO), which is typically not captured in CGE studies. This paper addresses the issue using a multicountry, multisector dynamic CGE model. Although the removal of distortionary ROO is likely to lower the unit costs of production within North America, it may also deteriorate North American terms of trade with the rest of the world. Thus, the net effect of the removal of NAFTA ROO on welfare is ambiguous and is an empirical issue.

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  • Patrick Georges, 2008. "Liberalizing NAFTA Rules of Origin: A Dynamic CGE Analysis," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(4), pages 672-691, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:reviec:v:16:y:2008:i:4:p:672-691
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9396.2008.00771.x
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    1. José Anson & Olivier Cadot & Antoni Estevadeordal & Jaime de Melo & Akiko Suwa‐Eisenmann & Bolormaa Tumurchudur, 2005. "Rules of Origin in North–South Preferential Trading Arrangements with an Application to NAFTA," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(3), pages 501-517, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Alexander Knobel & Bekhan Chokaev, 2014. "Possible Economic Outcomes of a Trade Agreement with the European Union," Working Papers 0107, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, revised 2014.
    2. Sonmez, Yontem & McDonald, Scott & Walmsley, Terrie, 2011. "Augmenting the GTAP Database: Are the Data on Intra Institutional Transactions Important?," Conference papers 332085, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    3. Mirajul Haq & Javeria Saeed & Muhammad Akram, 2021. "Exploring the Advantages and Disadvantages of the China–Pakistan Free Trade Agreement," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 29(3), pages 83-103, May.
    4. Georges, Patrick & Mérette, Marcel, 2011. "Trade Diversification Away from the U.S. or North American Customs Union? A Review of Canada’s Trade Policy Options," Conference papers 332084, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    5. Dixon, Peter B. & Rimmer, Maureen T. & Waschik, Robert G., 2018. "Evaluating the effects of local content measures in a CGE model: Eliminating the US Buy America(n) programs," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 155-166.
    6. Nigel Grimwade & David G. Mayes & Jiao Wang, 2011. "Estimating the Effects of Integration," Chapters, in: Miroslav N. Jovanović (ed.), International Handbook on the Economics of Integration, Volume III, chapter 13, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    7. Patrick Georges, 2010. "Dispensing with NAFTA Rules of Origin? Some Policy Options," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(11), pages 1606-1637, November.
    8. Patrick Georges, 2009. "Dispensing with NAFTA Rules of Origin? Some Policy Options for Canada," Working Papers 0904E, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
    9. Patrick Georges, 2017. "Canada’s Trade Policy Options under Donald Trump: NAFTA’s rules of origin, Canada-U.S. security perimeter, and Canada’s geographical trade diversification opportunities," Working Papers 1707E, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
    10. Laura da Costa Ferré, 2009. "Diagonal Cumulation of Rules of Origin in South America," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 3009, Department of Economics - dECON.

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