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Pricing the Cost of Expropriation Risk

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  • Ephraim Clark

Abstract

The paper examines a firm's cost of expropriation risk in a framework that links it to the government's incentive to expropriate. The author develops a pricing model for the firm's cost of expropriation risk that includes the positions of both government and firm. The government's decision to expropriate is modeled as an American‐style call option. The cost of expropriation risk is modeled as the value of an insurance policy that pays off all losses resulting from expropriation. The firm's cost of expropriation risk is determined by the government acting to optimize the value of its option to expropriate. The author identifies the parameters that link the government's option to expropriate to the firm's cost of expropriation risk, and shows how the model can be used in capital budgeting decisions and the ongoing management of expropriation risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Ephraim Clark, 2003. "Pricing the Cost of Expropriation Risk," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(2), pages 412-422, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:reviec:v:11:y:2003:i:2:p:412-422
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-9396.00391
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Clark, Ephraim, 1997. "Valuing political risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 477-490, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:zbw:rwirep:0298 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Restrepo Ochoa, Diana C. & Correia, Ricardo & Peña, Juan Ignacio & Población, Javier, 2015. "Expropriation risk, investment decisions and economic sectors," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 326-342.
    3. Di Corato, Luca, 2013. "Profit sharing under the threat of nationalization," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 295-315.
    4. Yu-Fu Chen & Michael Funke, 2007. "Political Risk, Economic Integration, and the Foreign Direct Investment Decision," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 208, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
    5. Philipp an de Meulen, 2011. "Labor Heterogeneity and the Risk of Expropriation in Less Developed Countries," Ruhr Economic Papers 0298, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    6. Di Corato, Luca, 2012. "Optimal conservation policy under imperfect intergenerational altruism," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 194-206.
    7. Yu-Fu Chen & Michael Funke, 2011. "Institutional Uncertainty, Economic Integration, and Vertical Foreign Direct Investment Decisions," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 593-612, September.
    8. Restrepo, Diana & Correia, Ricardo & Población, Javier, 2012. "Political risk and corporate investment decisions," DEE - Working Papers. Business Economics. WB 13114, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía de la Empresa.
    9. Baldursson, Fridrik Mar & von der Fehr, Nils-Henrik M., 2018. "Natural resources and sovereign expropriation," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 580-607.
    10. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    11. an de Meulen, Philipp, 2011. "Labor Heterogeneity and the Risk of Expropriation in Less Developed Countries," Ruhr Economic Papers 298, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    12. repec:cte:wbrepe:wb142304 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Alexander Braun & Marius Fischer, 2018. "Determinants of the Demand for Political Risk Insurance: Evidence from an International Survey," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 43(3), pages 397-419, July.

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