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Pricing the Cost of Expropriation Risk


  • Ephraim Clark

    () (Middlesex University Business School, London)


The paper examines a firm's cost of expropriation risk in a framework that links it to the government's incentive to expropriate. The author develops a pricing model for the firm's cost of expropriation risk that includes the positions of both government and firm. The government's decision to expropriate is modeled as an American-style call option. The cost of expropriation risk is modeled as the value of an insurance policy that pays off all losses resulting from expropriation. The firm's cost of expropriation risk is determined by the government acting to optimize the value of its option to expropriate. The author identifies the parameters that link the government's option to expropriate to the firm's cost of expropriation risk, and shows how the model can be used in capital budgeting decisions and the ongoing management of expropriation risk. Copyright 2003 Blackwell Publishing Ltd..

Suggested Citation

  • Ephraim Clark, 2003. "Pricing the Cost of Expropriation Risk," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(2), pages 412-422, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:reviec:v:11:y:2003:i:2:p:412-422

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. La Porta, Rafael & Lopez-de-Silanes, Florencio & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert, 1999. "The Quality of Government," Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(1), pages 222-279, April.
    2. repec:hrv:faseco:30728041 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Ross Levine & Norman Loayza & Thorsten Beck, 2002. "Financial Intermediation and Growth: Causality and Causes," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Leonardo Hernández & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Se (ed.), Banking, Financial Integration, and International Crises, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 2, pages 031-084 Central Bank of Chile.
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    8. Rafael La Porta & Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1998. "Law and Finance," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(6), pages 1113-1155, December.
    9. Kletzer, Kenneth & Bardhan, Pranab, 1987. "Credit markets and patterns of international trade," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1-2), pages 57-70, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Di Corato, Luca, 2012. "Optimal conservation policy under imperfect intergenerational altruism," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 194-206.
    2. repec:cte:wbrepe:wb142304 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:zbw:rwirep:0298 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Di Corato, Luca, 2013. "Profit sharing under the threat of nationalization," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 295-315.
    5. Yu-Fu Chen & Michael Funke, 2011. "Institutional Uncertainty, Economic Integration, and Vertical Foreign Direct Investment Decisions," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 593-612, September.
    6. Restrepo Ochoa, Diana C. & Correia, Ricardo & Peña, Juan Ignacio & Población, Javier, 2015. "Expropriation risk, investment decisions and economic sectors," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 326-342.
    7. an de Meulen, Philipp, 2011. "Labor Heterogeneity and the Risk of Expropriation in Less Developed Countries," Ruhr Economic Papers 298, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    8. Yu-Fu Chen & Michael Funke, 2007. "Political Risk, Economic Integration, and the Foreign Direct Investment Decision," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 208, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
    9. Restrepo, Diana & Correia, Ricardo & Población, Javier, 2012. "Political risk and corporate investment decisions," DEE - Working Papers. Business Economics. WB 13114, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía de la Empresa.
    10. Philipp an de Meulen, 2011. "Labor Heterogeneity and the Risk of Expropriation in Less Developed Countries," Ruhr Economic Papers 0298, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    11. Baldursson, Fridrik Mar & von der Fehr, Nils-Henrik, 2015. "Natural Resources and Sovereign Expropriation," Memorandum 05/2015, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    12. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.

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