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A Model of Time-on-Market and Real Estate Price Under Sequential Search with Recall

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  • Ping Cheng
  • Zhenguo Lin
  • Yingchun Liu

Abstract

This article develops a model and provides a closed-form formula to uncover the theoretical relationship between real estate price and time on market (TOM). Our model shows a nonlinear positive price-TOM relationship, and it identifies three economic factors that affect the impact of TOM on sale price. We demonstrate that conventional metrics for real estate return and risk, which are borrowed in a naïve fashion from finance theory, do not account for marketing period risk and tend to overestimate real estate returns and underestimate real estate risks. Our model provides a simple way to correct such bias. This theory helps to explain the apparent "risk-premium puzzle" in real estate. Copyright 2008 American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association

Suggested Citation

  • Ping Cheng & Zhenguo Lin & Yingchun Liu, 2008. "A Model of Time-on-Market and Real Estate Price Under Sequential Search with Recall," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 36(4), pages 813-843, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:36:y:2008:i:4:p:813-843
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    Cited by:

    1. David Koch & Gunther Maier, 2015. "The influence of estate agencies’ location and time on Internet," Review of Regional Research: Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft, Springer;Gesellschaft für Regionalforschung (GfR), vol. 35(2), pages 147-171, October.
    2. Ping Cheng & Zhenguo Lin & Yingchun Liu, 2010. "Home Price, Time-on-Market, and Seller Heterogeneity Under Changing Market Conditions," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 272-293, October.
    3. Zhenguo Lin & Yingchun Liu, 2008. "Real Estate Returns and Risk with Heterogeneous Investors," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 36(4), pages 753-776, December.
    4. Donner, Herman, 2017. "Determinants of a Foreclosure Discount," Working Paper Series 17/2, Royal Institute of Technology, Department of Real Estate and Construction Management & Centre for Banking and Finance (cefin).
    5. İnaltekin, Hazer & Jarrow, Robert A. & Sağlam, Mehmet & Yıldırım, Yıldıray, 2011. "Housing prices and the optimal time-on-the-market decision," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 171-179.
    6. An, Zhiyong & Cheng, Ping & Lin, Zhenguo & Liu, Yingchun, 2013. "How do market conditions impact price-TOM relationship? Evidence from real estate owned (REO) sales," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 250-263.
    7. Jason Kuruzovich & Siva Viswanathan & Ritu Agarwal, 2010. "Seller Search and Market Outcomes in Online Auctions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 56(10), pages 1702-1717, October.
    8. Zhenguo Lin & Marcus Allen & Charles Carter, 2013. "Pet Policy and Housing Prices: Evidence from the Condominium Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 109-122, July.
    9. Cheng, Ping & Lin, Zhenguo & Liu, Yingchun, 2010. "Illiquidity, transaction cost, and optimal holding period for real estate: Theory and application," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 109-118, June.
    10. Matthew Cypher & S McKay Price & Spenser Robinson & Michael J. Seiler, 2017. "Price Signals and Uncertainty in Commercial Real Estate Transactions," Framed Field Experiments 00626, The Field Experiments Website.
    11. Randy Anderson & Raymond Brastow & Geoffrey Turnbull & Bennie Waller, 2014. "Seller Over-Pricing and Listing Contract Length: The Effects of Endogenous Listing Contracts on Housing Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 49(3), pages 434-450, October.
    12. Egozcue, Martin & Fuentes García, Luis & Zitikis, Ricardas, 2012. "An optimal strategy for maximizing the expected real-estate selling price: accept or reject an offer?," MPRA Paper 40694, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Charles Carter & Zhenguo Lin & Marcus Allen & William Haloupek, 2013. "Another Look at Effects of “Adults-Only” Age Restrictions on Housing Prices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 115-130, January.
    14. Cheng, Ping & Lin, Zhenguo & Liu, Yingchun, 2011. "Property delisting, housing cycle and pricing bias," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 152-157, June.

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