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Risk and the Home Equity Conversion Mortgage

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  • Edward J. Szymanoski

Abstract

This article analyzes the risks involved with reverse mortgage insurance and explains the pricing model developed for the Home Equity Conversion Mortgage (HECM) demonstration. The paper demonstrates how borrower longevity, interest rates and property value changes all affect pricing, and why the HECM model focuses on property value as the primary source of uncertainty. It goes on to explain why a random walk specification was chosen to forecast property values, and how the principal limit factors, which determine cash payments to borrowers in the HECM program, are calculated.

Suggested Citation

  • Edward J. Szymanoski, 1994. "Risk and the Home Equity Conversion Mortgage," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 22(2), pages 347-366, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:22:y:1994:i:2:p:347-366
    DOI: 10.1111/1540-6229.00637
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    Cited by:

    1. Yugu Xiao, 2011. "Pricing a contract of linking home reversion plan and long-term care insurance via the principle of equivalent utility," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 465-475, February.
    2. Mitchell, Olivia S. & Piggott, John, 2004. "Unlocking housing equity in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 466-505, December.
    3. Jr-Wei Huang & Sharon S. Yang & Chuang-Chang Chang, 2021. "Modeling Housing Price Dynamics and their Impact on the Cost of no-Negative-Equity-Guarantees for Equity Releasing Products," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 63(2), pages 249-279, August.
    4. Tsai, Pei-Hsuan & Wang, Ying-Wei & Chang, Wen-Chang, 2023. "Hybrid MADM-based study of key risk factors in house-for-pension reverse mortgage lending in Taiwan's banking industry," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    5. Hui Shan, 2011. "Reversing the Trend: The Recent Expansion of the Reverse Mortgage Market," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 39(4), pages 743-768, December.
    6. Shu Ling Chiang & Ming Shann Tsai & Chien An Wang, 2021. "Determining an Optimal Principal Limit Factor for Reverse Mortgages under Economics-Based Models," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 63(4), pages 565-597, November.
    7. Oh, Sebeom & Ku, Hyejin & Jun, Doobae, 2022. "A comparative analysis of housing prices in different cities using the Black–Scholes and Jump Diffusion models," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PA).
    8. Buckley, Robert & Cartwright, Kim & Struyk, Raymond & Szymanoski, Edward, 2003. "Integrating housing wealth into the social safety net : the elderly in Moscow," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3115, The World Bank.
    9. Lee, Yung-Tsung & Wang, Chou-Wen & Huang, Hong-Chih, 2012. "On the valuation of reverse mortgages with regular tenure payments," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 430-441.
    10. Tsay, Jing-Tang & Lin, Che-Chun & Prather, Larry J. & Buttimer, Richard J., 2014. "An approximation approach for valuing reverse mortgages," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 39-52.
    11. Ebrahim, M. Shahid, 2009. "Can an Islamic model of housing finance cooperative elevate the economic status of the underprivileged?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 72(3), pages 864-883, December.
    12. Almas Naseem & R. Reesor, 2015. "Risk and reward of home equity borrowing for investment in Canada, a stochastic analysis," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 45-79, January.
    13. Yung-Tsung Lee & Tianxiang Shi, 2022. "Valuation of Reverse Mortgages with Surrender: A Utility Approach," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 65(4), pages 593-621, November.
    14. Shi, Tianxiang & Lee, Yung-Tsung, 2021. "Prepayment risk in reverse mortgages: An intensity-governed surrender model," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 68-82.
    15. Buckley, Robert & Cartwright, Kim & Struyk, Raymond & Szymanoski, Edward, 2003. "Integrating housing wealth into the social safety net for the Moscow elderly: an empirical essay," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 202-223, September.
    16. Begley, Jaclene & Fout, Hamilton & LaCour-Little, Michael & Mota, Nuno, 2020. "Home equity conversion mortgages: The secondary market investor experience," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).
    17. Hong-Ming Chen & Jing-Yi Chen, 2024. "Structural analysis of reverse mortgages in Taiwan," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-11, December.
    18. Chen, Hua & Cox, Samuel H. & Wang, Shaun S., 2010. "Is the Home Equity Conversion Mortgage in the United States sustainable? Evidence from pricing mortgage insurance premiums and non-recourse provisions using the conditional Esscher transform," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 371-384, April.
    19. Wei Han & Ping Wang & Hao Xu & June-Sung Choi, 2017. "Evaluation of the Reverse Mortgage Option in Hong Kong," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 31(2), pages 187-210, June.
    20. Donoso, José & Ruiz, José Luis & Tapia, Pablo, 2019. "The social and economic effects of introducing reverse mortgages in Chile," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), December.
    21. Shao, Adam W. & Chen, Hua & Sherris, Michael, 2019. "To borrow or insure? Long term care costs and the impact of housing," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 15-34.
    22. Seungryul Ma & Yongheng Deng, 2006. "Insurance Premium Structure of Reverse Mortgage Loans in Korea," Working Paper 8568, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.
    23. Shu Ling Chiang & Ming Shann Tsai, 2020. "A Microeconomic Model for the Decision of Reverse Mortgage Borrowers to Sell their House Early and its Application on the Estimation of Termination Rates," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 61(2), pages 288-312, August.
    24. Lee, Yung-Tsung & Kung, Ko-Lun & Liu, I-Chien, 2018. "Profitability and risk profile of reverse mortgages: A cross-system and cross-plan comparison," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 255-266.

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