IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/randje/v57y2026i1p245-266.html

Reserve Price Signaling With Public Information: Evidence From Online Auto Auctions

Author

Listed:
  • Junyan Guan
  • Boli Xu

Abstract

This article considers an auction model in which a seller's choice of reserve price signals her private information about the object's quality. We show that the signaling incentive would lower the seller's payoff and the probability of sale. We estimate the model using a novel dataset from a large online auto auction platform. Counterfactual simulations suggest that a secret reserve price could shut down the signaling incentive and improve both the seller's payoff and the probability of sale, which supports the prevalent use of secret reserve prices in practice.

Suggested Citation

  • Junyan Guan & Boli Xu, 2026. "Reserve Price Signaling With Public Information: Evidence From Online Auto Auctions," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 57(1), pages 245-266, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:randje:v:57:y:2026:i:1:p:245-266
    DOI: 10.1111/1756-2171.70047
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.70047
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/1756-2171.70047?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Giovanni Compiani & Philip Haile & Marcelo Sant’Anna, 2020. "Common Values, Unobserved Heterogeneity, and Endogenous Entry in US Offshore Oil Lease Auctions," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(10), pages 3872-3912.
    2. Pasha Andreyanov & El Hadi Caoui, 2022. "Secret reserve prices by uninformed sellers," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 13(3), pages 1203-1256, July.
    3. JoonHwan Cho & Yao Luo & Ruli Xiao, 2024. "Deconvolution from two order statistics," Papers 2403.17777, arXiv.org.
    4. Stephanie Rosenkranz & Patrick W. Schmitz, 2007. "Reserve Prices in Auctions as Reference Points," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(520), pages 637-653, April.
    5. Kei Kawai & Ken Onishi & Kosuke Uetake, 2022. "Signaling in Online Credit Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 130(6), pages 1585-1629.
    6. Riley, John G, 1979. "Informational Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(2), pages 331-359, March.
    7. Yao Luo & Peijun Sang & Ruli Xiao, 2024. "Order Statistics Approaches to Unobserved Heterogeneity in Auctions," Working Papers tecipa-776, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    8. Philip A Haile & Yuichi Kitamura, 2019. "Unobserved heterogeneity in auctions," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 22(1), pages 1-19.
    9. Ashenfelter, Orley, 1989. "How Auctions Work for Wine and Art," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 23-36, Summer.
    10. Andrew Sweeting & James W. Roberts & Chris Gedge, 2020. "A Model of Dynamic Limit Pricing with an Application to the Airline Industry," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(3), pages 1148-1193.
    11. Qingmin Liu & Konrad Mierendorff & Xianwen Shi & Weijie Zhong, 2019. "Auctions with Limited Commitment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(3), pages 876-910, March.
    12. Milgrom, Paul R & Weber, Robert J, 1982. "A Theory of Auctions and Competitive Bidding," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1089-1122, September.
    13. James W. Roberts, 2013. "Unobserved heterogeneity and reserve prices in auctions," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 44(4), pages 712-732, December.
    14. Horstmann, Ignatius J & LaCasse, Chantale, 1997. "Secret Reserve Prices in a Bidding Model with a Resale Option," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(4), pages 663-684, September.
    15. Uri Simonsohn & Dan Ariely, 2008. "When Rational Sellers Face Nonrational Buyers: Evidence from Herding on eBay," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(9), pages 1624-1637, September.
    16. Philip A. Haile & Han Hong & Matthew Shum, 2003. "Nonparametric Tests for Common Values in First-Price Sealed-Bid Auctions," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1445, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    17. JoonHwan Cho & Yao Luo & Ruli Xiao, 2024. "Deconvolution from two order statistics," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 15(4), pages 1065-1106, November.
    18. Huagang Li & Guofu Tan, 2017. "Hidden Reserve Prices with Risk-Averse Bidders," Frontiers of Economics in China-Selected Publications from Chinese Universities, Higher Education Press, vol. 12(3), pages 341-370, September.
    19. Yunmi Kong & Bernardo S. Silveira & Xun Tang, 2025. "Risk and Information in Dispute Resolution: An Empirical Study of Arbitration," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 133(9), pages 2794-2835.
    20. Andrew Sweeting & Xuezhen Tao & Xinlu Yao, 2024. "Dynamic Oligopoly Pricing with Asymmetric Information: Implications for Horizontal Mergers," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(3), pages 345-373, August.
    21. Bajari, Patrick & Hortacsu, Ali, 2003. "The Winner's Curse, Reserve Prices, and Endogenous Entry: Empirical Insights from eBay Auctions," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 34(2), pages 329-355, Summer.
    22. Vincent Daniel R., 1995. "Bidding Off the Wall: Why Reserve Prices May Be Kept Secret," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 575-584, April.
    23. Elena Krasnokutskaya, 2011. "Identification and Estimation of Auction Models with Unobserved Heterogeneity," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 78(1), pages 293-327.
    24. In-Koo Cho & David M. Kreps, 1987. "Signaling Games and Stable Equilibria," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 102(2), pages 179-221.
    25. Hu, Yingyao & McAdams, David & Shum, Matthew, 2013. "Identification of first-price auctions with non-separable unobserved heterogeneity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 174(2), pages 186-193.
    26. Cai, Hongbin & Riley, John & Ye, Lixin, 2007. "Reserve price signaling," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 135(1), pages 253-268, July.
    27. Vivek Bhattacharya & James W. Roberts & Andrew Sweeting, 2014. "Regulating bidder participation in auctions," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 45(4), pages 675-704, December.
    28. Matt Shum & Phil Haile & Han Hong, 2003. "Nonparametric Tests for Common Values in First-Price Auctions," Economics Working Paper Archive 501, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
    29. repec:adr:anecst:y:1994:i:34:p:04 is not listed on IDEAS
    30. Bernard Elyakime & Jean-Jacques Laffont & Patrice Loisel & Quang Vuong, 1994. "First-Price Sealed-Bid Auctions with Secret Reservation Prices," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 34, pages 71-114.
    31. Andrés Aradillas‐López & Amit Gandhi & Daniel Quint, 2013. "Identification and Inference in Ascending Auctions With Correlated Private Values," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(2), pages 489-534, March.
    32. Mailath, George J, 1987. "Incentive Compatibility in Signaling Games with a Continuum of Types," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(6), pages 1349-1365, November.
    33. Joachim Freyberger & Bradley J. Larsen, 2022. "Identification in ascending auctions, with an application to digital rights management," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 13(2), pages 505-543, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pasha Andreyanov & El Hadi Caoui, 2022. "Secret reserve prices by uninformed sellers," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 13(3), pages 1203-1256, July.
    2. Yao Luo & Peijun Sang & Ruli Xiao, 2024. "Order Statistics Approaches to Unobserved Heterogeneity in Auctions," Working Papers tecipa-776, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    3. Syngjoo Choi & Lars Nesheim & Imran Rasul, 2016. "Reserve Price Effects In Auctions: Estimates From Multiple Regression-Discontinuity Designs," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 54(1), pages 294-314, January.
    4. Luo, Yao & Xiao, Ruli, 2023. "Identification of auction models using order statistics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 236(1).
    5. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/5kht5rc22p99sq5tol4efe4ssb is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Philip A Haile & Yuichi Kitamura, 2019. "Unobserved heterogeneity in auctions," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 22(1), pages 1-19.
    7. Nathalie Gimenes & Emmanuel Guerre, 2019. "Nonparametric identification of an interdependent value model with buyer covariates from first-price auction bids," Papers 1910.10646, arXiv.org.
    8. Luo, Yao, 2020. "Unobserved heterogeneity in auctions under restricted stochastic dominance," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 216(2), pages 354-374.
    9. Yao Luo & Ruli Xiao, 2019. "Identification of Auction Models Using Order Statistics," Working Papers tecipa-630, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    10. Onur A. Koska & Frank Stähler, 2022. "Reserve Prices as Signals," Working Papers in Economics 22/10, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    11. Marleen Marra, 2024. "Estimating and Auction Platform Game with Two-Sided Entry," Sciences Po Economics Publications (main) hal-03393068, HAL.
    12. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5kht5rc22p99sq5tol4efe4ssb is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Gimenes, Nathalie & Guerre, Emmanuel, 2020. "Nonparametric identification of an interdependent value model with buyer covariates from first-price auction bids," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 219(1), pages 1-18.
    14. Grundl, Serafin & Zhu, Yu, 2024. "Two results on auctions with endogenous entry," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    15. Tonghui Qi, 2025. "Identification in Auctions with Truncated Transaction Prices," Papers 2510.04464, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2025.
    16. Balzer, Benjamin & Rosato, Antonio, 2025. "Never say never: Optimal exclusion and reserve prices with expectations-based loss-averse buyers," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    17. Seifert, Stefan & Hüttel, Silke, 2020. "Common values and unobserved heterogeneity in farmland auctions in Germany," FORLand Working Papers 21 (2020), Humboldt University Berlin, DFG Research Unit 2569 FORLand "Agricultural Land Markets – Efficiency and Regulation".
    18. Yu-Chin Hsu & Tong Li & Chu-An Liu & Hidenori Takahashi, 2026. "Testing for Monotone Equilibrium Strategies in Games of Incomplete Information," Papers 2604.06643, arXiv.org.
    19. Giovanni Compiani & Philip Haile & Marcelo Sant’Anna, 2020. "Common Values, Unobserved Heterogeneity, and Endogenous Entry in US Offshore Oil Lease Auctions," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(10), pages 3872-3912.
    20. Stefan Seifert & Silke Hüttel, 2023. "Is there a risk of a winner’s curse in farmland auctions?," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 50(3), pages 1140-1177.
    21. Lamy, Laurent & Patnam, Manasa & Visser, Michael, 2023. "Distinguishing incentive from selection effects in auction-determined contracts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 1172-1202.
    22. Onur A. Koska & Frank Stähler, 2017. "When should bidders learn reserve prices?," ERC Working Papers 1712, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Oct 2017.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:randje:v:57:y:2026:i:1:p:245-266. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/randdus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.