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The Statistics Of Long‐Horizon Regressions Revisited1

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  • Jacob Boudouk
  • Matthew Richardson

Abstract

This paper compares commonly used approaches for estimating the relation between long‐horizon returns and a predetermined variable X1, such as dividend yields. Specifically, we look at regression of (i) nonoverlapping multiperiod returns on Xt (ii) overlapping multiperiod returns on Xt, (iii) single‐period returns on multiperiod Xt, and (iv) single‐period returns on Xt and its implied long‐horizon regression coefficient. We provide analytical formulae which quantify the efficiency of the estimators used in the various approaches. Using the formulae, as well as Monte Carlo simulations, we demonstrate that the relative efficiency of the estimators used in the various approaches differs remarkably, depending on the dynamic structure of the regressor. of special interest for financial economists, when the regressors are highly autocorrelated, we find that the regressions (ii) (iii), and (iv) provide only marginal efficiency gains above and beyond the nonoverlapping long‐horizon regression.

Suggested Citation

  • Jacob Boudouk & Matthew Richardson, 1994. "The Statistics Of Long‐Horizon Regressions Revisited1," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(2), pages 103-119, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:mathfi:v:4:y:1994:i:2:p:103-119
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9965.1994.tb00052.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Campbell, John Y., 2001. "Why long horizons? A study of power against persistent alternatives," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(5), pages 459-491, December.
    2. Robert F. Stambaugh, "undated". "Estimating Conditional Expectations When Volatility Fluctuates," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 17-93, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    3. Shmuel Kandel & Robert F. Stambaugh, "undated". "Modeling Expected Stock Returns for Long and Short Horizons," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 42-88, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
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    2. Lunde A. & Timmermann A., 2004. "Duration Dependence in Stock Prices: An Analysis of Bull and Bear Markets," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 253-273, July.
    3. Demetrescu, Matei & Rodrigues, Paulo M.M. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2023. "Transformed regression-based long-horizon predictability tests," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 237(2).
    4. Berben, R-P. & van Dijk, D.J.C., 1998. "Does the absence of cointegration explain the typical findings in long horizon regressions?," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 9814, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    5. Chinn, Menzie D. & Meredith, Guy, 2000. "Testing uncovered interest parity at short and long horizons," HWWA Discussion Papers 102, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
    6. Jorion, Philippe, 1996. "Does real interest parity hold at longer maturities?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1-2), pages 105-126, February.
    7. Chinn, Menzie David & Meredith, Guy, 2000. "Interest parity at short and long horizons," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2000,44, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    8. Boudoukh, Jacob & Israel, Ronen & Richardson, Matthew, 2022. "Biases in long-horizon predictive regressions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(3), pages 937-969.
    9. Paul Harrison & Harold H. Zhang, "undated". "Cyclical Variation in the Risk and Return Relation," Computing in Economics and Finance 1997 175, Society for Computational Economics.
    10. Chinn, Menzie D., 2006. "The (partial) rehabilitation of interest rate parity in the floating rate era: Longer horizons, alternative expectations, and emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 7-21, February.
    11. Yan, Lei & Irwin, Scott H. & Sanders, Dwight R., 2018. "Mapping algorithms, agricultural futures, and the relationship between commodity investment flows and crude oil futures prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 486-504.
    12. Martin, Anna D. & Mauer, Laurence J., 2005. "A note on common methods used to estimate foreign exchange exposure," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 125-140, April.
    13. Wayne E. Ferson & Andrea Heuson & Tie Su, 2005. "Weak-Form and Semi-Strong-Form Stock Return Predictability Revisited," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 51(10), pages 1582-1592, October.
    14. Jacob Boudoukh & Matthew Richardson & Robert Whitelaw, 2005. "The Myth of Long-Horizon Predictability," NBER Working Papers 11841, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Ferson, Wayne E & Korajczyk, Robert A, 1995. "Do Arbitrage Pricing Models Explain the Predictability of Stock Returns?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 68(3), pages 309-349, July.
    16. Snaith, Stuart & Coakley, Jerry & Kellard, Neil, 2013. "Does the forward premium puzzle disappear over the horizon?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 3681-3693.

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