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Trust in numbers

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  • David Spiegelhalter

Abstract

Those who value quantitative and scientific evidence are faced with claims both of a reproducibility crisis in scientific publication and of a post‐truth society abounding in fake news and alternative facts. Both issues are of vital importance to statisticians, and both are deeply concerned with trust in expertise. By considering the ‘pipelines’ through which scientific and political evidence is propagated, I consider possible ways of improving both the trustworthiness of the statistical evidence being communicated, and the ability of audiences to assess the quality and reliability of what they are being told.

Suggested Citation

  • David Spiegelhalter, 2017. "Trust in numbers," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 180(4), pages 948-965, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jorssa:v:180:y:2017:i:4:p:948-965
    DOI: 10.1111/rssa.12302
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gelman, Andrew & Stern, Hal, 2006. "The Difference Between," The American Statistician, American Statistical Association, vol. 60, pages 328-331, November.
    2. Daniele Fanelli, 2009. "How Many Scientists Fabricate and Falsify Research? A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Survey Data," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 4(5), pages 1-11, May.
    3. John P A Ioannidis, 2005. "Why Most Published Research Findings Are False," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 2(8), pages 1-1, August.
    4. Anita Makri, 2017. "Give the public the tools to trust scientists," Nature, Nature, vol. 541(7637), pages 261-261, January.
    5. Ronald L. Wasserstein & Nicole A. Lazar, 2016. "The ASA's Statement on p -Values: Context, Process, and Purpose," The American Statistician, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 70(2), pages 129-133, May.
    6. Laura Spinney, 2017. "How Facebook, fake news and friends are warping your memory," Nature, Nature, vol. 543(7644), pages 168-170, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mike Brewer & Thomas Crossley & Federico Zilio, 2019. "What do we really know about the employment effects of the UK’s National Minimum Wage?," IFS Working Papers W19/14, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    2. Sylvia Richardson, 2022. "Statistics in times of increasing uncertainty," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 185(4), pages 1471-1496, October.
    3. David J. Hand, 2022. "Trustworthiness of statistical inference," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 185(1), pages 329-347, January.

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