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Semiparametric small area estimation for binary outcomes with application to unemployment estimation for local authorities in the UK

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  • Ray Chambers
  • Nicola Salvati
  • Nikos Tzavidis

Abstract

type="main" xml:id="rssa12123-abs-0001"> A new semiparametric and robust approach to small area estimation for discrete outcomes is proposed. The methodology represents an efficient and easily computed alternative to prediction by using a generalized linear mixed model and is based on an extension of M-quantile regression. In addition, two estimators of the prediction mean-squared error are described: one based on Taylor linearization and another based on the block bootstrap. The methodology proposed is applied to UK annual Labour Force Survey data for estimating the proportion of the unemployed in local authorities in the UK. The properties of estimators are further empirically assessed in model-based simulations.

Suggested Citation

  • Ray Chambers & Nicola Salvati & Nikos Tzavidis, 2016. "Semiparametric small area estimation for binary outcomes with application to unemployment estimation for local authorities in the UK," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 179(2), pages 453-479, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jorssa:v:179:y:2016:i:2:p:453-479
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/rssa.2016.179.issue-2
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    Cited by:

    1. Schmid, Timo & Bruckschen, Fabian & Salvati, Nicola & Zbiranski, Till, 2016. "Constructing socio-demographic indicators for National Statistical Institutes using mobile phone data: Estimating literacy rates in Senegal," Discussion Papers 2016/9, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    2. Otto-Sobotka, Fabian & Salvati, Nicola & Ranalli, Maria Giovanna & Kneib, Thomas, 2019. "Adaptive semiparametric M-quantile regression," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 11(C), pages 116-129.
    3. Noah Cheruiyot Mutai, 2022. "Small area estimation of health insurance coverage for Kenyan counties," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 16(3), pages 231-254, December.
    4. Merfeld, Joshua D. & Newhouse, David & Weber, Michael & Lahiri, Partha, 2022. "Combining Survey and Geospatial Data Can Significantly Improve Gender-Disaggregated Estimates of Labor Market Outcomes," IZA Discussion Papers 15390, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Joscha Krause & Jan Pablo Burgard & Domingo Morales, 2022. "Robust prediction of domain compositions from uncertain data using isometric logratio transformations in a penalized multivariate Fay–Herriot model," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 76(1), pages 65-96, February.
    6. Timo Schmid & Fabian Bruckschen & Nicola Salvati & Till Zbiranski, 2017. "Constructing sociodemographic indicators for national statistical institutes by using mobile phone data: estimating literacy rates in Senegal," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 180(4), pages 1163-1190, October.
    7. Angelo Moretti, 2023. "Estimation of small area proportions under a bivariate logistic mixed model," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 57(4), pages 3663-3684, August.
    8. James Dawber & Nicola Salvati & Enrico Fabrizi & Nikos Tzavidis, 2022. "Expectile regression for multi‐category outcomes with application to small area estimation of labour force participation," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 185(S2), pages 590-619, December.
    9. María Dolores Esteban & María José Lombardía & Esther López-Vizcaíno & Domingo Morales & Agustín Pérez, 2023. "Small area estimation of average compositions under multivariate nested error regression models," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 32(2), pages 651-676, June.
    10. María Dolores Esteban & María José Lombardía & Esther López-Vizcaíno & Domingo Morales & Agustín Pérez, 2020. "Small area estimation of proportions under area-level compositional mixed models," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 29(3), pages 793-818, September.
    11. Ranjbar, Setareh & Salvati, Nicola & Pacini, Barbara, 2023. "Estimating heterogeneous causal effects in observational studies using small area predictors," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    12. Joscha Krause & Jan Pablo Burgard & Domingo Morales, 2022. "$$\ell _2$$ ℓ 2 -penalized approximate likelihood inference in logit mixed models for regional prevalence estimation under covariate rank-deficiency," Metrika: International Journal for Theoretical and Applied Statistics, Springer, vol. 85(4), pages 459-489, May.
    13. Domingo Morales & Joscha Krause & Jan Pablo Burgard, 2022. "On the Use of Aggregate Survey Data for Estimating Regional Major Depressive Disorder Prevalence," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 87(1), pages 344-368, March.
    14. Baldermann, Claudia & Salvati, Nicola & Schmid, Timo, 2016. "Robust small area estimation under spatial non-stationarity," Discussion Papers 2016/5, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    15. Fiaschi, Davide & Giuliani, Elisa & Nieri, Federica & Salvati, Nicola, 2020. "How bad is your company? Measuring corporate wrongdoing beyond the magic of ESG metrics," Business Horizons, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 287-299.
    16. Yolanda Marhuenda & Isabel Molina & Domingo Morales & J. N. K. Rao, 2017. "Poverty mapping in small areas under a twofold nested error regression model," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 180(4), pages 1111-1136, October.
    17. Stefano Marchetti & Caterina Giusti & Nicola Salvati & Monica Pratesi, 2017. "Small area estimation based on M-quantile models in presence of outliers in auxiliary variables," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 26(4), pages 531-555, November.

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