IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/jbfnac/v37y2010i5-6p687-714.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Determinants of Takeover Premium in Cash Offers: An Option Pricing Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Sudi Sudarsanam
  • Ghulam Sorwar

Abstract

In takeovers bidders offer a premium to target firm shareholders but the determinants of such premium are not clearly identified. Among the factors previously examined in the literature are prior target undervaluation, expected synergy and overpayment due to behavioural biases like hubris. In this paper we use an option pricing approach to decompose the observed takeover premia. We also test the implications of recent real options‐based models of takeover premia and risk changes surrounding takeovers. We model the observed target stock price as a portfolio of unobserved stock price and a put option whose value depends on a number of target and deal characteristics that impinge on the probability of bid success. For a sample of over 200 UK cash takeover bids during 1990–2004, we estimate the put value using the Black‐Scholes option pricing model and find that target firm revaluation accounts for a substantial part of the observed takeover premium and the put value accounts for a smaller, but still significant, proportion. The latter is higher in hostile, failed and longer bids. The put option value is also significantly correlated with the relative riskiness of bidders and targets, and synergy as predicted by Lambrecht (2004). Movements in betas in the run up to takeover announcements and in the post‐announcement period are consistent with the real options‐based predictions of Hackbarth and Morellec (2008). This study contributes to a better understanding of the true determinants of takeover premium and demonstrates the usefulness of option pricing models and provides a preliminary test of real options models in understanding and measuring the impact of UK takeovers on firm risk and shareholder gains.

Suggested Citation

  • Sudi Sudarsanam & Ghulam Sorwar, 2010. "Determinants of Takeover Premium in Cash Offers: An Option Pricing Approach," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(5‐6), pages 687-714, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jbfnac:v:37:y:2010:i:5-6:p:687-714
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-5957.2010.02190.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-5957.2010.02190.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1468-5957.2010.02190.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jensen, Michael C. & Ruback, Richard S., 1983. "The market for corporate control : The scientific evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1-4), pages 5-50, April.
    2. Roll, Richard, 1986. "The Hubris Hypothesis of Corporate Takeovers," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(2), pages 197-216, April.
    3. Bradley, Michael & Desai, Anand & Kim, E. Han, 1988. "Synergistic gains from corporate acquisitions and their division between the stockholders of target and acquiring firms," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 3-40, May.
    4. Dirk Hackbarth & Erwan Morellec, 2008. "Stock Returns in Mergers and Acquisitions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(3), pages 1213-1252, June.
    5. Schwert, G. William, 1996. "Markup pricing in mergers and acquisitions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 153-192, June.
    6. Franks, Julian R. & Harris, Robert S., 1989. "Shareholder wealth effects of corporate takeovers : The U.K. experience 1955-1985," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 225-249, August.
    7. Paul Draper & Krishna Paudyal, 1999. "Corporate Takeovers: Mode of Payment, Returns and Trading Activity," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(5‐6), pages 521-558, June.
    8. Dimson, Elroy, 1979. "Risk measurement when shares are subject to infrequent trading," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 197-226, June.
    9. Bhagat, Sanjai & Brickley, James A & Loewenstein, Uri, 1987. "The Pricing Effects of Interfirm Cash Tender Offers," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(4), pages 965-986, September.
    10. Marc Goergen & Luc Renneboog, 2004. "Shareholder Wealth Effects of European Domestic and Cross‐border Takeover Bids," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 10(1), pages 9-45, March.
    11. Loughran, Tim & Vijh, Anand M, 1997. "Do Long-Term Shareholders Benefit from Corporate Acquisitions?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(5), pages 1765-1790, December.
    12. Travlos, Nickolaos G, 1987. "Corporate Takeover Bids, Methods of Payment, and Bidding Firms' Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(4), pages 943-963, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tumellano Sebehela, 2016. "Portfolio Formation Memory," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 11(02), pages 1-16, June.
    2. Tumellano Sebehela, 2017. "Game Options," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 12(03), pages 1-17, September.
    3. Marcato, Gianluca & Sebehela, Tumellano & Campani, Carlos Heitor, 2018. "Volatility smiles when information is lagged in prices," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 151-165.
    4. Nico Lehmann, 2016. "The role of corporate governance in shaping accruals manipulation prior to acquisitions," Accounting and Business Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(4), pages 327-364, June.
    5. Gerritsen, Dirk F., 2015. "Security analysts’ target prices and takeover premiums," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 205-213.
    6. Boateng, Agyenim & Hua, Xiuping & Uddin, Moshfique & Du, Min, 2014. "Home country macroeconomic factors on outward cross-border mergers and acquisitions: Evidence from the UK," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 202-216.
    7. Konstantinos Konstantaras & Vasilios Sogiakas, 2019. "Is stock liquidity transferred and upgraded in acquisitions? Evidence from liquidity synergies in US freeze-outs," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 282(1), pages 179-216, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sudi Sudarsanam & Ghulam Sorwar, 2010. "Determinants of Takeover Premium in Cash Offers: An Option Pricing Approach," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(5-6), pages 687-714.
    2. Martynova, M. & Renneboog, L.D.R., 2005. "Takeover Waves : Triggers, Performance and Motives," Discussion Paper 2005-029, Tilburg University, Tilburg Law and Economic Center.
    3. Kanungo, Rama Prasad, 2021. "Uncertainty of M&As under asymmetric estimation," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 774-793.
    4. Antonios Antoniou & Philippe Arbour & Huainan Zhao, 2008. "How Much Is Too Much: Are Merger Premiums Too High?," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 14(2), pages 268-287, March.
    5. Bhabra, Harjeet S. & Huang, Jiayin, 2013. "An empirical investigation of mergers and acquisitions by Chinese listed companies, 1997–2007," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 186-207.
    6. Dennis C. Mueller & B. Burcin Yurtoglu, 2007. "Corporate governance and the returns to acquiring firms' shareholders: an international comparison," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(8), pages 879-896.
    7. Chuang, Kai-Shi, 2017. "Corporate life cycle, investment banks and shareholder wealth in M&As," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 122-134.
    8. Shams, Syed M.M. & Gunasekarage, Abeyratna & Colombage, Sisira R.N., 2013. "Does the organisational form of the target influence market reaction to acquisition announcements? Australian evidence," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 89-108.
    9. Jerry Coakley & Stavroula Iliopoulou, 2006. "Bidder CEO and Other Executive Compensation in UK M&As," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 12(4), pages 609-631, September.
    10. Martynova, M. & Renneboog, L.D.R., 2006. "Mergers and Acquisitions in Europe," Other publications TiSEM 531d24e9-4f1e-4df3-80db-d, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    11. Martynova, M. & Renneboog, L.D.R., 2006. "The Performance of the European Market for Corporate Control : Evidence from the 5th Takeover Wave," Discussion Paper 2006-118, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    12. Martynova, Marina & Renneboog, Luc, 2008. "A century of corporate takeovers: What have we learned and where do we stand?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 2148-2177, October.
    13. Martynova, M., 2006. "The market for corporate control and corporate governance regulation in Europe," Other publications TiSEM 8651e281-4914-41f2-ac14-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    14. Tunyi, Abongeh A., 2021. "Revisiting acquirer returns: Evidence from unanticipated deals," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    15. Andrey Golubov & Dimitris Petmezas & Nickolaos G. Travlos, 2013. "Empirical mergers and acquisitions research: a review of methods, evidence and managerial implications," Chapters, in: Adrian R. Bell & Chris Brooks & Marcel Prokopczuk (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Finance, chapter 12, pages 287-313, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    16. Lina M. Cortés & John J. García & David Agudelo, 2015. "Effects of Mergers and Acquisitions on Shareholder Wealth: Event Study for Latin American Airlines," Documentos de Trabajo CIEF 12453, Universidad EAFIT.
    17. Li, Ying & Lu, Miao & Lo, Y. Ling, 2019. "The impact of analyst coverage on partial acquisitions: Evidence from M&A premium and firm performance in China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 37-60.
    18. Andreou, Panayiotis C. & Louca, Christodoulos & Panayides, Photis M., 2012. "Valuation effects of mergers and acquisitions in freight transportation," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(6), pages 1221-1234.
    19. Winson Chan & David Emanuel, 2011. "Board governance and acquirers’ returns: A study of Australian acquisitions," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 36(2), pages 174-199, August.
    20. McCahery, J.A. & Renneboog, L.D.R., 2003. "The Economics of the Proposed European Takeover Directive," Other publications TiSEM b16fdfd0-9e4e-44bb-b20f-f, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:jbfnac:v:37:y:2010:i:5-6:p:687-714. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0306-686X .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.