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The Topology of Aging: Modeling Elderly Population Dynamics Through Complex Sectoral Networks in Rural Spain

Author

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  • Oscar Luis Alonso‐Cienfuegos
  • Ana Isabel Otero‐Sanchez

Abstract

This study analyses the socioeconomic interdependence of rural areas by examining whether similarity in primary sector economic structure leads to correlated patterns of demographic aging across municipalities in Northern Spain. We construct an economic network where municipalities are linked based on their proximity in a multivariate space of agricultural and forestry indicators. This novel network construction captures latent structural analogies beyond simple geographical adjacency. We then employ Poisson Network Autoregressive (PNAR) models to estimate the effect of this productive similarity on the spatial distribution of the elderly population (aged 65+). Our results provide robust evidence that municipalities with analogous primary sector profiles exhibit statistically related demographic aging patterns mediated through economic similarity networks. This finding suggests that local demographic changes are not isolated events but are shaped by broader regional economic structures. The study offers a new network‐based framework for understanding the spatial demographics of rural labor markets and has implications for targeted rural development policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Oscar Luis Alonso‐Cienfuegos & Ana Isabel Otero‐Sanchez, 2026. "The Topology of Aging: Modeling Elderly Population Dynamics Through Complex Sectoral Networks in Rural Spain," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(2), June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:growch:v:57:y:2026:i:2:n:e70122
    DOI: 10.1111/grow.70122
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Berdegué, Julio A. & Bebbington, Anthony & Escobal, Javier, 2015. "Conceptualizing Spatial Diversity in Latin American Rural Development: Structures, Institutions, and Coalitions," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 1-10.
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    4. Berdegué, Julio A. & Escobal, Javier & Bebbington, Anthony, 2015. "Explaining Spatial Diversity in Latin American Rural Development: Structures, Institutions, and Coalitions," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 129-137.
    5. James P. LeSage, 2014. "What Regional Scientists Need to Know about Spatial Econometrics," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 44(1), pages 13-32, Spring.
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