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Deterrence: Credibility And Proportionality

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  • DANIEL G. ARCE
  • TODD SANDLER

Abstract

This paper extends the analysis of deterrence to examine terrorism, nuclear proliferation, and rogue nations. Such situations are characterized by differential pre-emptive and response capacity, in contrast to the traditional deterrence literature on nuclear superpowers, where such factors are absent. We focus on the credibility of deterrence responses to pre-emption and show that credible (subgame-perfect) responses are rarely proportional. The analysis is also extended to asymmetric deterrence scenarios whereby credibility and proportionality depend on the potential aggressor's access to conflict technology and the responder's preferences for indirect conflict vs. the status quo. Copyright 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel G. Arce & Todd Sandler, 2009. "Deterrence: Credibility And Proportionality," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(3), pages 384-408, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecopol:v:21:y:2009:i:3:p:384-408
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Michael Simon, 2002. "Rogue state response to BMD: The regional context," Defense & Security Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(3), pages 271-292, September.
    2. Carlson Lisa J. & Dacey Raymond, 2004. "Sequential Decision Analysis of the Traditional Deterrence Game," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 10(3), pages 1-16, December.
    3. Enders, Walter & Sandler, Todd, 2000. "Is Transnational Terrorism Becoming More Threatening? A Time-Series Investigation," Staff General Research Papers Archive 1823, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    4. Walter Enders & Todd Sandler, 2000. "Is Transnational Terrorism Becoming More Threatening?," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 44(3), pages 307-332, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kollias Christos & Papadamou Stephanos & Psarianos Iacovos, 2014. "Rogue State Behavior and Markets: the Financial Fallout of North Korean Nuclear Tests," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 20(2), pages 1-26, April.

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