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A More General Non‐expected Utility Model as an Explanation of Gambling Outcomes for Individuals and Markets

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  • DAVID PEEL
  • DAVID LAW

Abstract

One feature of experimental work is the heterogeneity in risk attitudes and probability distortion displayed by agents. We outline a more general non‐expected utility model, which nests the models of Markowitz, and Kahneman and Tversky. The model can generate the standard favourite–longshot bias or a reverse favourite–longshot bias as a result of optimal behaviour. We also provide new empirical evidence on the relationship between Tote and bookmaker returns and confirm that the relationship is not as originally conjectured by Gabriel and Marsden. We outline how our new model can provide an explanation of the relationship that is observed.

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  • David Peel & David Law, 2009. "A More General Non‐expected Utility Model as an Explanation of Gambling Outcomes for Individuals and Markets," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 76(302), pages 251-263, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:econom:v:76:y:2009:i:302:p:251-263
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0335.2008.00736.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Charles A. Holt & Susan K. Laury, 2002. "Risk Aversion and Incentive Effects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1644-1655, December.
    2. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Michael Cain & David Peel, 2004. "Utility and the Skewness of Return in Gambling," The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 29(2), pages 145-163, December.
    4. Chris Starmer, 2000. "Developments in Non-expected Utility Theory: The Hunt for a Descriptive Theory of Choice under Risk," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 38(2), pages 332-382, June.
    5. Patrick L. Brockett & James R. Garven, 1998. "A Reexamination of the Relationship Between Preferences and Moment Orderings by Rational Risk-Averse Investors," The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 23(2), pages 127-137, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jeremy Sandford & Paul Shea, 2013. "Optimal Setting of Point Spreads," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 80(317), pages 149-170, January.
    2. Hao, Jing & Lu, Yue & Zhang, Jing & Bai, Hengyu & Wu, Ji (George), 2024. "Does provincial gambling culture affect corporate innovation? Evidence from China," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    3. Bruce, A.C. & Johnson, J.E.V. & Peirson, J., 2012. "Recreational versus professional bettors: Performance differences and efficiency implications," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 172-174.
    4. David Alan Peel, 2013. "On the Implications of the Markowitz Model of Utility embodying Gain Seeking Preferences for Odds on Betting and Bookmakers choice of Spread or Odds Betting," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(2), pages 1420-1428.
    5. Alistair Bruce & David Marginson, 2014. "Power, Not Fear: A Collusion-Based Account of Betting Market Inefficiency," International Journal of the Economics of Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 77-97, February.
    6. Philip W. S. Newall & Dominic Cortis, 2021. "Are Sports Bettors Biased toward Longshots, Favorites, or Both? A Literature Review," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-9, January.
    7. Linda M. Woodland & Bill M. Woodland, 2011. "The Reverse Favorite-Longshot Bias in the National Hockey League: Do Bettors Still Score on Longshots?," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 12(1), pages 106-117, February.
    8. Valeria De Bonis & Alessandro Gandolfo, 2015. "Predictors of gambling among university students: the role of gender, sociality and attitudes towards risk," Public Finance Research Papers 11, Istituto di Economia e Finanza, DSGE, Sapienza University of Rome.
    9. Jaiho Chung & Joon Ho Hwang, 2010. "An Empirical Examination of the Parimutuel Sports Lottery Market versus the Bookmaker Market," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 76(4), pages 884-905, April.

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