IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/ecinqu/v53y2015i1p448-468.html

Rising Autism Prevalence: Real Or Displacing Other Mental Disorders? Evidence From Demand For Auxiliary Healthcare Workers In California

Author

Listed:
  • Dhaval M. Dave
  • Jose M. Fernandez

Abstract

Autism is a development disorder that has increased in prevalence from 0.5 to 14.7 per 1,000 children over 1970–2010. Using annual wages and provider counts from the American Community Survey and information from 21 regional development centers in California, we estimate the labor demand for auxiliary health providers. We focus on this subset of providers because, unlike physicians and psychologists who can diagnose autism, these workers cannot induce their own demand. If the incidence of autism is increasing independently of other mental disorders, then the demand for auxiliary health providers should increase, leading to higher wages and labor supply. Otherwise, the increase in autism diagnosis is merely displacing other mental disorders. We find that a 100% increase in autism cases increases the wages of auxiliary health workers over non‐autism health occupations by 8–11% and the number of providers by 9–14%. Furthermore, we find that one of every three new autism diagnoses is merely supplanting mental retardation diagnoses, but does not displace other mental disorders. These estimates suggest that at least part of the increase in autism diagnoses, about 50–65%, reflects an increase in the true prevalence of the disorder. (JEL L11, J2, J3)

Suggested Citation

  • Dhaval M. Dave & Jose M. Fernandez, 2015. "Rising Autism Prevalence: Real Or Displacing Other Mental Disorders? Evidence From Demand For Auxiliary Healthcare Workers In California," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 53(1), pages 448-468, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecinqu:v:53:y:2015:i:1:p:448-468
    DOI: 10.1111/ecin.12137
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12137
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/ecin.12137?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mandell, D.S. & Wiggins, L.D. & Carpenter, L.A. & Daniels, J. & DiGuiseppi, C. & Durkin, M.S. & Giarelli, E. & Morrier, M.J. & Nicholas, J.S. & Pinto-Martin, J.A. & Shattuck, P.T. & Thomas, K.C. & Yea, 2009. "Racial/ethnic disparities in the identification of children with autism spectrum disorders," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 99(3), pages 493-498.
    2. Kayuet Liu & Noam Zerubavel & Peter Bearman, 2010. "Social demographic change and autism," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 47(2), pages 327-343, May.
    3. Elder, Todd E., 2010. "The importance of relative standards in ADHD diagnoses: Evidence based on exact birth dates," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 641-656, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hampton, Matt & McNamara, Scott, 2022. "The impact of educational rewards on the diagnosis of autism spectrum disorder," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dhaval M. Dave & Jose M. Fernandez, 2012. "The Effect of an Increase in Autism Prevalence on the Demand for Auxiliary Healthcare Workers: Evidence from California," NBER Working Papers 18238, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. repec:plo:pone00:0017875 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Persson, Petra & Qiu, Xinyao & Rossin-Slater, Maya, 2021. "Family Spillover Effects of Marginal Diagnoses: The Case of ADHD," IZA Discussion Papers 14020, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Sallin, Aurelién, 2021. "Estimating returns to special education: combining machine learning and text analysis to address confounding," Economics Working Paper Series 2109, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science.
    5. Dominique H. Como & Leah I. Stein Duker & José C. Polido & Sharon A. Cermak, 2020. "Oral Health and Autism Spectrum Disorders: A Unique Collaboration between Dentistry and Occupational Therapy," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(1), pages 1-10, December.
    6. Dalsgaard, Søren & Nielsen, Helena Skyt & Simonsen, Marianne, 2014. "Consequences of ADHD medication use for children's outcomes," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 137-151.
    7. Thide, Konrad Juel & Bøgh, Felix Johannes Pettersson & Larsen, Birthe, 2024. "Gender and socioeconomic dimensions of relative age effects on ADHD prescriptions: Evidence from Denmark," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).
    8. Maya Rossin-Slater & Adrienne Sabety & Aileen Wu, 2026. "The Impact of Preschool Entry Age on Children’s Behavioral and Developmental Health in Medicaid," NBER Working Papers 34677, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Coffey, Stephanie & Schwartz, Amy Ellen, 2025. "Towering Intellects? Sizing up the relationship between height and academic success," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    10. Solomon, Olga & Lawlor, Mary C., 2013. "“And I look down and he is gone”: Narrating autism, elopement and wandering in Los Angeles," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 106-114.
    11. Thomas S. Dee & Hans Henrik Sievertsen, 2018. "The gift of time? School starting age and mental health," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(5), pages 781-802, May.
    12. Krzysztof Karbownik & Umut Özek, 2023. "Setting a Good Example? Examining Sibling Spillovers in Educational Achievement Using a Regression Discontinuity Design," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 58(5), pages 1567-1607.
    13. Hannes Schwandt & Amelie Wuppermann, 2015. "The youngest Get the Pill: ADHD Misdiagnosis and the Production of Education in Germany," CEP Discussion Papers dp1394, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    14. Berniell, Inés & Estrada, Ricardo, 2020. "Poor little children: The socioeconomic gap in parental responses to school disadvantage," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    15. Todd Elder & David Figlio & Scott Imberman & Claudia Persico, 2020. "The Role of Neonatal Health in the Incidence of Childhood Disability," American Journal of Health Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 6(2), pages 216-250.
    16. Nicodemo, Catia & Nicoletti, Cheti & Vidiella-Martin, Joaquim, 2024. "Starting School and ADHD: When Is It Time to Fly the Nest?," IZA Discussion Papers 17091, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    17. Kelly Bedard & Allison Witman, 2020. "Family structure and the gender gap in ADHD," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 1101-1129, December.
    18. Jill Furzer & Elizabeth Dhuey & Audrey Laporte, 2022. "ADHD misdiagnosis: Causes and mitigators," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(9), pages 1926-1953, September.
    19. Dababnah, Sarah & Parish, Susan L. & Turner Brown, Lauren & Hooper, Stephen R., 2011. "Early screening for autism spectrum disorders: A primer for social work practice," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 265-273, February.
    20. Rasmus Landersø & Helena Skyt Nielsen & Marianne Simonsen, 2017. "School Starting Age and the Crime‐age Profile," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 127(602), pages 1096-1118, June.
    21. Simone Balestra & Beatrix Eugster & Helge Liebert, 2017. "The Effect of School Starting Age on Special Needs Incidence and Child Development into Adolescence," CESifo Working Paper Series 6837, CESifo.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms
    • J2 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor
    • J3 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:ecinqu:v:53:y:2015:i:1:p:448-468. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/weaaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.