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Chocs pétroliers, effets potentiels de l'invasion de l'Ukraine par la Russie sur le solde budgétaire des économies africaines

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Listed:
  • Kirsi Zongo
  • Marcellin Ndong Ntah

Abstract

Cet article analyse les effets de l'invasion de l'Ukraine par la Russie sur les économies africaines en se focalisant sur les effets induits par la hausse du prix de pétrole sur le solde budgétaire. L'étude a mobilisé les modèles VAR structurels et a porté sur six pays dont trois exportateurs et trois importateurs nets de pétrole en utilisant des séries temporelles sur la période 1980‐2021 et une simulation portant sur la période 2022‐2023. Les résultats montrent qu'un choc pétrolier entraîne une réaction positive du solde budgétaire des pays exportateurs de pétrole et une réaction négative dans les pays importateurs mais l'effet est asymétrique. Les simulations des scénarii ont montré que la guerre en Ukraine entraînerait une amélioration du solde budgétaire du Nigéria d'environ 2 points de pourcentage et d'environ 1,25 de pourcentage pour l'Angola et l'Algérie. Cependant, l'effet contraire est observé pour les pays importateurs en aggravant leur déficit budgétaire. Aussi, préconisons−nous d'une part aux pays exportateurs de pétrole de diversifier les exportations en s'investissant notamment dans des secteurs hors pétrole, et d'autre part aux pays importateurs de consentir des efforts pour le développement d'énergies renouvelables afin de briser leur dépendance vis‐à‐vis du pétrole.

Suggested Citation

  • Kirsi Zongo & Marcellin Ndong Ntah, 2024. "Chocs pétroliers, effets potentiels de l'invasion de l'Ukraine par la Russie sur le solde budgétaire des économies africaines," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 36(S1), pages 25-42, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:afrdev:v:36:y:2024:i:s1:p:s25-s42
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-8268.12722
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