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Do exchange‐traded fund flows increase the volatility of the underlying index? Evidence from the emerging market in China

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  • Hua Wang
  • Liao Xu

Abstract

Studying 70 Chinese equity exchange‐traded funds (ETFs), we show that daily ETF flows significantly increase both the total volatility and the fundamental volatility of the underlying index on the next trading day. More specifically, it is the forward‐looking flow component which captures APs’ share creation/redemption activities beyond their role of market makers that can significantly predict the two types of volatility. Moreover, ETF arbitrage (ETF's information share) enhances the effect of forward‐looking flows on the total volatility (fundamental volatility) of the index. Furthermore, the relationships between forward‐looking flows and the two types of index volatility show a two‐way contagion.

Suggested Citation

  • Hua Wang & Liao Xu, 2019. "Do exchange‐traded fund flows increase the volatility of the underlying index? Evidence from the emerging market in China," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 58(5), pages 1525-1548, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:acctfi:v:58:y:2019:i:5:p:1525-1548
    DOI: 10.1111/acfi.12437
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    2. Yuan, Ying & Huang, Yizhao & Chen, Haoran, 2021. "Monthly-rebalanced leveraged exchange-traded products: Performance and mandatory rebalancing needs," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
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    5. Xu, Liao & Yin, Xiangkang & Zhao, Jing, 2019. "The sidedness and informativeness of ETF trading and the market efficiency of their underlying indexes," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    6. Xu, Liao & Gao, Han & Shi, Yukun & Zhao, Yang, 2020. "The heterogeneous volume-volatility relations in the exchange-traded fund market: Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 400-408.
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    9. Xu, Liao & Xu, Lu & Zhao, Jing & Zhao, Yang, 2020. "Information-based trading and information propagation: Evidence from the exchange traded fund market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).

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