IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/abacus/v51y2015i1p63-85.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Earnings Surprises in Analysts' Forecasts, Mandatory Disclosure, and Share Repurchases

Author

Listed:
  • Chi-Chun Liu
  • Ni-Yun Chen

Abstract

type="main"> This paper examines the impact of forecast errors and the mandatory disclosure of repurchase transactions required by 2003 Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) regulations on share repurchases. We define forecast errors as the difference between analysts' forecasted earnings and actual earnings. We argue that firms with positive forecast errors imply greater information asymmetry, which may induce them to signal through share repurchases. We show that both the repurchase target and analysts' forecast revision are positively related to forecast errors. Furthermore, these associations are more pronounced in the low disclosure period (1989–2003) where greater information asymmetry between managers and outside investors is found, while increased transparency in the high disclosure period (2004–2006) leads to more significant improvement in long-term performances for firms with positive forecast errors. The results are consistent with our expectations that the information asymmetry implied in forecast errors, along with a shock change from the introduction of the 2003 SEC regulation, affect both corporate and analysts' behaviour.

Suggested Citation

  • Chi-Chun Liu & Ni-Yun Chen, 2015. "Earnings Surprises in Analysts' Forecasts, Mandatory Disclosure, and Share Repurchases," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 51(1), pages 63-85, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:abacus:v:51:y:2015:i:1:p:63-85
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/abac.12043
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. William J. McNally, 1999. "Open Market Stock Repurchase Signaling," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 28(2), Summer.
    2. Murali Jagannathan & Clifford Stephens, 2003. "Motives for Multiple Open-Market Repurchase Programs," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 32(2), Summer.
    3. Vermaelen, Theo, 1981. "Common stock repurchases and market signalling : An empirical study," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 139-183, June.
    4. repec:bla:joares:v:32:y:1994:i:1:p:38-60 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Jacob Oded, 2005. "Why Do Firms Announce Open-Market Repurchase Programs?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(1), pages 271-300.
    6. Hribar, Paul & Jenkins, Nicole Thorne & Johnson, W. Bruce, 2006. "Stock repurchases as an earnings management device," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1-2), pages 3-27, April.
    7. Gustavo Grullon & Roni Michaely, 2004. "The Information Content of Share Repurchase Programs," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(2), pages 651-680, April.
    8. P. Raghavendra Rau & Theo Vermaelen, 2002. "Regulation, Taxes, and Share Repurchases in the United Kingdom," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(2), pages 245-282, April.
    9. Chuan-San Wang & Norman Strong & Samuel Tung & Steve Lin, 2009. "Share Repurchases, the Clustering Problem, and the Free Cash Flow Hypothesis," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 38(3), pages 487-505, September.
    10. Zhang, Hua, 2005. "Share price performance following actual share repurchases," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 1887-1901, July.
    11. Chan, Konan & Ikenberry, David L. & Lee, Inmoo, 2007. "Do managers time the market? Evidence from open-market share repurchases," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(9), pages 2673-2694, September.
    12. Dann, Larry Y. & Masulis, Ronald W. & Mayers, David, 1991. "Repurchase tender offers and earnings information," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 217-251, September.
    13. Verrecchia, Robert E., 1983. "Discretionary disclosure," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 179-194, April.
    14. Irene Karamanou & Nikos Vafeas, 2005. "The Association between Corporate Boards, Audit Committees, and Management Earnings Forecasts: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(3), pages 453-486, June.
    15. Darrough, Masako N. & Stoughton, Neal M., 1990. "Financial disclosure policy in an entry game," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1-3), pages 219-243, January.
    16. Brockman, Paul & Khurana, Inder K. & Martin, Xiumin, 2008. "Voluntary disclosures around share repurchases," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 175-191, July.
    17. Barber, Brad M. & Lyon, John D., 1996. "Detecting abnormal operating performance: The empirical power and specification of test statistics," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 359-399, July.
    18. Clifford P. Stephens & Michael S. Weisbach, 1998. "Actual Share Reacquisitions in Open-Market Repurchase Programs," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(1), pages 313-333, February.
    19. Dittmar, Amy K, 2000. "Why Do Firms Repurchase Stock?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 73(3), pages 331-355, July.
    20. Gustavo Grullon & Roni Michaely, 2002. "Dividends, Share Repurchases, and the Substitution Hypothesis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(4), pages 1649-1684, August.
    21. Oswald, Dennis & Young, Steven, 2008. "Share reacquisitions, surplus cash, and agency problems," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 795-806, May.
    22. David Ikenberry & Josef Lakonishok & Theo Vermaelen, 2000. "Stock Repurchases in Canada: Performance and Strategic Trading," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(5), pages 2373-2397, October.
    23. David L. Ikenberry & Theo Vermaelen, 1996. "The Option to Repurchase Stock," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 25(4), Winter.
    24. Fried, Jesse M., 2005. "Informed Trading and False Signaling with Open Market Repurchases," Berkeley Olin Program in Law & Economics, Working Paper Series qt8x6082cn, Berkeley Olin Program in Law & Economics.
    25. Comment, Robert & Jarrell, Gregg A, 1991. " The Relative Signalling Power of Dutch-Auction and Fixed-Price Self-Tender Offers and Open-Market Share Repurchases," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(4), pages 1243-1271, September.
    26. William Rees, 1996. "The impact of open market equity repurchases on UK equity prices," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(4), pages 353-370.
    27. Chan, Konan & Ikenberry, David & Lee, Inmoo, 2004. "Economic Sources of Gain in Stock Repurchases," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 39(03), pages 461-479, September.
    28. Matthew T. Billett & Hui Xue, 2007. "Share Repurchases and the Need for External Finance," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 19(3), pages 42-55.
    29. William J. McNally & Brian F. Smith & Thomas Barnes, 2006. "The Price Impacts of Open Market Repurchase Trades," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(5-6), pages 735-752.
    30. Erik Lie, 2005. "Financial Flexibility, Performance, and the Corporate Payout Choice," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(6), pages 2179-2202, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:abacus:v:51:y:2015:i:1:p:63-85. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0001-3072 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.