IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bcp/journl/v9y2025issue-9p3037-3047.html

Oil Revenue Fluctuation, Fiscal Policy Response and Economic Growth in Nigeria

Author

Listed:
  • T.A Abari-Ogunsona

    (Lagos State University, OJO)

  • R.A Danmola

    (Lagos State University, OJO)

  • M.S Aruleba

    (Lagos State University, OJO)

Abstract

This study examines the link between oil revenue fluctuations, fiscal policy, and economic performance in Nigeria from 1981 to 2023. The main objective is to evaluate how changes in oil revenue influence fiscal decisions, particularly government expenditure and their combined effect on GDP growth. Using annual time series data, the study employs both Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to capture short- and long-run dynamics. The OLS estimates indicate that oil revenue and government expenditure have a positive and statistically significant impact on GDP, while inflation negatively affects growth. The ARDL bounds test confirms a long-run equilibrium relationship among the variables. In the short run, oil revenue changes produce immediate effects on fiscal spending, while government expenditure adjusts gradually to reflect revenue conditions. The study recommends diversifying revenue sources beyond oil, adopting a counter-cyclical fiscal framework, and improving the transparency of oil-related spending. Strengthening institutions to manage oil windfalls and reduce fiscal volatility will enhance macroeconomic stability and long-term economic growth. The findings reinforce the critical role of prudent fiscal policy in oil-dependent economies like Nigeria.

Suggested Citation

  • T.A Abari-Ogunsona & R.A Danmola & M.S Aruleba, 2025. "Oil Revenue Fluctuation, Fiscal Policy Response and Economic Growth in Nigeria," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 9(9), pages 3037-3047, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bcp:journl:v:9:y:2025:issue-9:p:3037-3047
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.rsisinternational.org/journals/ijriss/Digital-Library/volume-9-issue-9/3037-3047.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://rsisinternational.org/journals/ijriss/articles/oil-revenue-fluctuation-fiscal-policy-response-and-economic-growth-in-nigeria/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kareem Ismail, 2010. "The Structural Manifestation of the ‘Dutch Disease’: The Case of Oil Exporting Countries," IMF Working Papers 2010/103, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-248, April.
    3. Anthony Enisan Akinlo & Tajudeen Egbetunde, 2010. "Financial Development and Economic Growth: The Experience of 10 Sub-Saharan African Countries Revisited," The Review of Finance and Banking, Academia de Studii Economice din Bucuresti, Romania / Facultatea de Finante, Asigurari, Banci si Burse de Valori / Catedra de Finante, vol. 2(1), pages 017-028, June.
    4. Omo Aregbeyen & Bashir Kolawole, 2015. "Oil Revenue, Public Spending and Economic Growth Relationships in Nigeria," Journal of Sustainable Development, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 8(3), pages 113-113, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nouf Alsharif & Sambit Bhattacharyya, 2024. "Oil discovery, boom‐bust cycle and manufacturing slowdown: Evidence from a large industry level dataset," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(2), pages 406-431, May.
    2. Carolina G√≥mez Cuenca, 2015. "M√°s All√° de un Boom de Recursos Naturales: Efectos de los Choques Petroleros en la Econom√≠a Colombiana," Documentos CEDE 12565, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    3. Noura Abu Asab, 2017. "Asymmetric Oil Price Shocks and Economic Activity in Developing Oil-importing Economies: The Case of Jordan," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(2), pages 118-124.
    4. Muhammad Shahbaz & Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Mohammad Iqbal Tahir, 2015. "Analyzing time-frequency relationship between oil price and exchange rate in Pakistan through wavelets," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(4), pages 690-704, April.
    5. Hamdi, Helmi & Sbia, Rashid, 2013. "Dynamic relationships between oil revenues, government spending and economic growth in an oil-dependent economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 118-125.
    6. Imran Shah, 2012. "Revisiting the Dynamic Effects of Oil Price Shock on Small Developing Economies," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 12/626, School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
    7. Joseph H. Davis & Christopher Hanes & Paul W. Rhode, 2009. "Harvests and Business Cycles in Nineteenth-Century America," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 124(4), pages 1675-1727.
    8. Peter Y. Jang & Mario G. Beruvides, 2020. "Time-Varying Influences of Oil-Producing Countries on Global Oil Price," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-22, March.
    9. Antonella Cavallo & Antonio Ribba, 2017. "Measuring the Effects of Oil Price and Euro-area Shocks on CEECs Business Cycles," Department of Economics 0111, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    10. Lee, Chi-Chuan & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Ning, Shao-Lin, 2017. "Dynamic relationship of oil price shocks and country risks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 571-581.
    11. Rafiq, Shudhasattwa & Sgro, Pasquale & Apergis, Nicholas, 2016. "Asymmetric oil shocks and external balances of major oil exporting and importing countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 42-50.
    12. Jureviciene Daiva & Pupelyte Laura, 2013. "Forecasting of the Influence of Financial Institutions Loan Portfolio Change for the Economic Sectors of the Country," Creative and Knowledge Society, Sciendo, vol. 3(1), pages 1-16, July.
    13. Moya-Martínez, Pablo & Ferrer-Lapeña, Román & Escribano-Sotos, Francisco, 2014. "Oil price risk in the Spanish stock market: An industry perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 280-290.
    14. Ray C. Fair, 1986. "Sources of Output and Price Variability in a Macroeconometric Model," NBER Working Papers 2112, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Wang, Fanyi & Ma, Wanying & Mirza, Nawazish & Altuntaş, Mehmet, 2023. "Green financing, financial uncertainty, geopolitical risk, and oil prices volatility," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    16. Huang, Shupei & An, Haizhong & Gao, Xiangyun & Sun, Xiaoqi, 2017. "Do oil price asymmetric effects on the stock market persist in multiple time horizons?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 185(P2), pages 1799-1808.
    17. Hallock, John L. & Tharakan, Pradeep J. & Hall, Charles A.S. & Jefferson, Michael & Wu, Wei, 2004. "Forecasting the limits to the availability and diversity of global conventional oil supply," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 1673-1696.
    18. Sklavos, Konstantinos & Dam, Lammertjan & Scholtens, Bert, 2013. "The liquidity of energy stocks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 168-175.
    19. Steinberg, Daniel, 2017. "Resource shocks and human capital stocks – Brain drain or brain gain?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 250-268.
    20. Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2013. "Crude oil prices and liquidity, the BRIC and G3 countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 28-38.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bcp:journl:v:9:y:2025:issue-9:p:3037-3047. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Dr. Pawan Verma (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://rsisinternational.org/journals/ijriss/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.