Climate Change and Economic Instability in Nigeria

Climate change poses to be a serious problem to different nations of the world especially developing nations like Nigeria. This change in climate leads to several changes in the environment. These various changes have direct and underlying effects on the economy of a nation and its sustainable development. Thus, the main objective of the study is assessing the impact of climate change on economic instability in Nigeria and also proffer ways to reduce its impacts and ensure sustainable development in the nation. The study employed meteorological data (mean annual rainfall and surface temperature) for 30 years (1994-2023) and economic data on GDP growth rate and inflation rate for 30 years also. Retrospective research was conducted, and archival data were collected for climate from Climatic Research Unit Gridded time series (CRU TS) version 4, while the economic data were collected from World Development Indicator (WDI) and Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations. Multiple regression analysis and time-series analysis with ARIMA modelling was employed. The results showed that while temperature increases are associated with minor GDP growth, they have negative effect on inflation, suggesting that higher temperatures can lower inflation rates. Variability in rainfall on the other hand has a modest negative effect on GDP but it does not significantly affect inflation. The findings indicates that climate change contributes to economic instability, with rising temperature and fluctuating rainfall patterns influencing inflationary pressures and productivity. Notably, the data underscores the need for comprehensive policy responses to mitigate climate-related economic disruptions. The research also points to the importance of further refining models to enhance the accuracy of climate-economic predictions and to account for the complexities of Nigeria’s diverse climate and economic landscape.