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Anthropogenic climate change has driven over 5 million km2 of drylands towards desertification

Author

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  • A. L. Burrell

    (Woods Hole Research Center
    School of Geography, Geology and the Environment, University of Leicester)

  • J. P. Evans

    (University of New South Wales
    University of New South Wales)

  • M. G. De Kauwe

    (University of New South Wales
    University of New South Wales
    University of New South Wales)

Abstract

Drylands cover 41% of the earth’s land surface and include 45% of the world’s agricultural land. These regions are among the most vulnerable ecosystems to anthropogenic climate and land use change and are under threat of desertification. Understanding the roles of anthropogenic climate change, which includes the CO2 fertilization effect, and land use in driving desertification is essential for effective policy responses but remains poorly quantified with methodological differences resulting in large variations in attribution. Here, we perform the first observation-based attribution study of desertification that accounts for climate change, climate variability, CO2 fertilization as well as both the gradual and rapid ecosystem changes caused by land use. We found that, between 1982 and 2015, 6% of the world’s drylands underwent desertification driven by unsustainable land use practices compounded by anthropogenic climate change. Despite an average global greening, anthropogenic climate change has degraded 12.6% (5.43 million km2) of drylands, contributing to desertification and affecting 213 million people, 93% of who live in developing economies.

Suggested Citation

  • A. L. Burrell & J. P. Evans & M. G. De Kauwe, 2020. "Anthropogenic climate change has driven over 5 million km2 of drylands towards desertification," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-11, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:11:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-020-17710-7
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-17710-7
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    Cited by:

    1. Patrycjusz Zarębski & Vitaliy Krupin & Dominika Zwęglińska-Gałecka, 2021. "Renewable Energy Generation Gaps in Poland: The Role of Regional Innovation Systems and Knowledge Transfer," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-26, May.
    2. Ziyi Wang & Tingting Bai & Dong Xu & Juan Kang & Jian Shi & He Fang & Cong Nie & Zhijun Zhang & Peiwen Yan & Dingning Wang, 2022. "Temporal and Spatial Changes in Vegetation Ecological Quality and Driving Mechanism in Kökyar Project Area from 2000 to 2021," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-18, June.
    3. Marcelino Antonio Zúñiga-Estrada & Liliana Lizárraga-Mendiola & Carlos Alfredo Bigurra-Alzati & Sergio Esteban Aldana-Alonso & Jorge Santiago Ramírez-Núñez & Gabriela A. Vázquez-Rodríguez, 2022. "Preliminary Model-Based Evaluation of Water Conservation Strategies in a Semi-Arid Urban Zone," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-20, January.
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    5. Sha Zhou & A. Park Williams & Benjamin R. Lintner & Kirsten L. Findell & Trevor F. Keenan & Yao Zhang & Pierre Gentine, 2022. "Diminishing seasonality of subtropical water availability in a warmer world dominated by soil moisture–atmosphere feedbacks," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    6. Agúndez, Dolores & Lawali, Sitou & Mahamane, Ali & Alía, Ricardo & Soliño, Mario, 2022. "Development of agroforestry food resources in Niger: Are farmers’ preferences context specific?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    7. Xunming Wang & Quansheng Ge & Xin Geng & Zhaosheng Wang & Lei Gao & Brett A. Bryan & Shengqian Chen & Yanan Su & Diwen Cai & Jiansheng Ye & Jimin Sun & Huayu Lu & Huizheng Che & Hong Cheng & Hongyan L, 2023. "Unintended consequences of combating desertification in China," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.
    8. Alary, Véronique & Lasseur, Jacques & Frija, Aymen & Gautier, Denis, 2022. "Assessing the sustainability of livestock socio-ecosystems in the drylands through a set of indicators," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).

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