The impact and channel effects of Yangtze River’s great protection strategy on carbon emissions: quasi-experimental evidence from China

The Yangtze River has been regarded as the birthplace of China and an important symbol of its rich cultural legacy. Yangtze River’s Great Protection Strategy (YRGPS) has resulted in various changes in the economy, society, and environment of the Yangtze River basin. However, its impact on carbon reduction and emission reduction is yet to be discussed. This paper analyzes the impact of the YRGPS on carbon emissions in the Yangtze River basin using the differences-in-differences method based on 2056 county-level panel data during the period 2000–2019 in China. The results show that (1) the implementation of the YRGPS in the Yangtze River basin has significantly reduced local carbon emissions, with an impact lag of one year. (2) The reduction of carbon emissions in the Yangtze River basin and the evolution of its drivers are mainly attributed to the YRGPS which has reduced the intensity of energy consumption and promoted the development of service industries, and the optimization and adjustment of the industrial structure have not been able to play a role in future carbon emission reductions. (3) In terms of spatial heterogeneity, the carbon emission reduction effect of the YRGPS is more prominent for areas in the east and along the river, when the distance from the main stream of the Yangtze River is within 50 km. At distances between 51 and 250 km and greater than 251 km the carbon emission reduction effect of the YRGPS shows a gradient increase, and there is a “pollution refuge” effect in the Yangtze River basin. In terms of industrial heterogeneity, the carbon reduction effect of the YRGPS is more obvious in regions with a higher share of secondary industries. In terms of temporal heterogeneity, the carbon emission reduction effect of the Yangtze River Economic Belt Strategy has been strengthened after the implementation of the YRGPS, and the combination of the two has a synergistic effect. Based on these conclusions, this research puts forward specific proposals for carbon reduction and emission reduction in the Yangtze River basin.