Critical Analysis of the Thesis for the Long Waves of Kondratiev
The main purpose of this paper is “long wave” thesis proposed by Kondratieff in 1926. Analysis begins with close examination of methods used by Kondratieff for trend removal and extraction of cyclical components. The presence of unit root and improper trend elimination procedures are considered as well as usage of “nine years moving average” filter which both can lead to spurious cycles with long periods. Theoretical conclusions for improper trend removal are backed by detail examination of tendency in 14 economic time series analyzed by Kondratieff. It is shown that they all are integrated of first order and differencing is needed to achieve stationarity instead of regression on time. The spectral analysis of transformed series shows that the cyclical components presented are only “Kitchin” and “Juglar” types. Waves longer then 30 years does not exist in the data so the main Kondratieff thesis should be considered unproved.
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Volume (Year): (2001)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
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- Nelson, Charles R & Kang, Heejoon, 1981.
"Spurious Periodicity in Inappropriately Detrended Time Series,"
Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 741-751, May.
- Nelson, Charles R & Kang, Heejoon, 1979. "Spurious Periodicity in Inappropriately Detrended Time Series," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 161, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Hatanaka, Michio & Howrey, E Philip, 1969. "Low Frequency Variation in Economic Time Series," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(4), pages 752-766.
- Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
- Chan, K Hung & Hayya, Jack C & Ord, J Keith, 1977. "A Note on Trend Removal Methods: The Case of Polynomial Regression versus Variate Differencing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(3), pages 737-744, April.
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