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Quantifying the spillover effects of U.S. economic policy uncertainty on emerging market economies using GMM-PVAR model

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  • Shweta Sikhwal

    (HSE University, Moscow, Russia)

Abstract

This paper quantifies the spillover effects of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) in the United States on emerging market economies (EMEs). Using a generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation of a panel vector autoregression (PVAR) model on a dataset of 39 EMEs from 2005 to 2019, we find that increased U.S. EPU significantly raises the consumer price index (CPI) and negatively impacts the real GDP of these economies. Additionally, heightened U.S. EPU leads to a depreciation of emerging market currencies and a reduction in short-term interest rates. We employ a news-based EPU index developed by Baker et al. (2016) and conduct robustness checks using forward orthogonal transformation, an alternative EPU index, and by addressing the potential endogeneity of the oil price uncertainty (OPU) index. Our findings highlight the adverse effects of U.S. economic policy uncertainty on key macroeconomic variables in emerging markets, underscoring the importance of stable economic policies and robust institutions to mitigate these impacts.

Suggested Citation

  • Shweta Sikhwal, 2024. "Quantifying the spillover effects of U.S. economic policy uncertainty on emerging market economies using GMM-PVAR model," Russian Journal of Economics, ARPHA Platform, vol. 10(3), pages 229-245, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:arh:jrujec:v:10:y:2024:i:3:p:229-245
    DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.10.128666
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    Keywords

    economic policy uncertainty GMM-PVAR spillover effects emerging markets;

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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