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Обзорная статья по Динамическим стохастическим моделям общего равновесия (DSGE) // Review on DSGE models

Author

Listed:
  • Орлов К.В. // Orlov K.V.

    (National Bank of Kazakhstan)

  • Жузбаев А.М. // Zhuzbayev A.M.

    (National Bank of Kazakhstan)

  • Мекенбаева К.Б. // Mekenbayeva K.B.

    (National Bank of Kazakhstan)

  • Самат М.Н. // Samat M.N.

    (National Bank of Kazakhstan)

  • Букенов А.Е. // Bukenov A.E.

    (National Bank of Kazakhstan)

  • Сейдахметов А.Н. // Seidakhmetov A.N.

    (National Bank of Kazakhstan)

Abstract

В последнее время динамические стохастические модели общего равновесия получили широкое применение в деятельности центральных банков, министерств, международных финансовых организаций и в академических кругах. Несмотря на некоторые недостатки, DSGE модели являются хорошей отправной точкой для понимания и объяснения многих экономических взаимосвязей. Данный класс моделей используется для решения различных задач: исторический анализ и объяснение динамики исследуемых макропеременных, прогнозирование ключевых макроэкономических показателей, симуляционные эксперименты, формулирование и реализация денежно-кредитной политики. В частности, DSGE модели зачастую применяются для целей сценарного анализа и определения оптимальных правил монетарной политики, представляя существенный практический интерес в деятельности Национального Банка Республики Казахстан. В данной статье рассмотрены теоретические аспекты и структура канонической DSGE модели, представлен обзор применяемых моделей данного класса в центральных банках различных стран мира. Наряду с этим обозначены преимущества и недостатки динамических структурных моделей, представлены обзоры применяемых DSGE моделей в центральных банках стран, следующих режиму инфляционного таргетирования, а также рассмотрена целесообразность разработки и внедрения DSGE модели для целей монетарной политики в Национальном Банке Казахстана. // Recently, dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models have been widely applied by central banks, ministries, international financial organizations, and in academia. Despite some drawbacks, DSGE models provide a good starting point for understanding and explaining many of the economic relationships. This class of models is used to solve various problems: historical analysis and explanation of the dynamics of macroeconomic variables, forecasting of key macroeconomic indicators, simulation analysis, formulation and implementation of monetary policy. In particular, DSGE models are often used for the purposes of scenario analysis and determination of the optimal rules of monetary policy. This, in turn, represents a significant practical interest for the National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan. This paper discusses the theoretical aspects and structure of the canonical DSGE model, provides an overview of the applied models of this class in the central banks of different countries. Along with this, the advantages and disadvantages of dynamic structural models are outlined, reviews of the DSGE models used in the central banks of countries following the inflation targeting regime are presented, and the feasibility of developing and implementing a DSGE model for monetary policy purposes in the National Bank of Kazakhstan is considered.

Suggested Citation

  • Орлов К.В. // Orlov K.V. & Жузбаев А.М. // Zhuzbayev A.M. & Мекенбаева К.Б. // Mekenbayeva K.B. & Самат М.Н. // Samat M.N. & Букенов А.Е. // Bukenov A.E. & Сейдахметов А.Н. // Seidakhmetov A.N., 2020. "Обзорная статья по Динамическим стохастическим моделям общего равновесия (DSGE) // Review on DSGE models," Economic Review(National Bank of Kazakhstan), National Bank of Kazakhstan, issue 4, pages 4-40.
  • Handle: RePEc:aob:journl:y:2020:i:4:p:4-40
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Beck, Thorsten & Colciago, Andrea & Pfajfar, Damjan, 2014. "The role of financial intermediaries in monetary policy transmission," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 1-11.
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    3. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-325, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    DSGE; новая кейнсианская кривая Филлипса; инфляция; монетарная политика; Казахстан; New Keynesian Phillips curve; inflation; monetary policy; Kazakhstan;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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