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Exchange Rate Volatility and the Fear of Floating in Brazil

Author

Listed:
  • Márcio Holland

    (FGV-UFU)

Abstract

Many emerging market economies (EMs) have adopted a floating exchange rate regime after currency crises. Since 1999 Brazil has experienced a floating regime combined with inflation targeting. The Central Bank varies the interest rates in order to reach the targeted inflation rates and consequently the variability of the interest rates has been higher than the variability of the exchange rates. According to some economists, this is a clear symptom of the fear of floating and Brazil can not be an exception among the EMs. After assessing the behavior of the exchange rates and interest rates associated with other macroeconomic variables, this paper concludes that Brazil has not suffered from the fear of floating and that the Brazilian Central Bank does not care about exchange rate dynamics as much as it does about inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Márcio Holland, 2006. "Exchange Rate Volatility and the Fear of Floating in Brazil," Economia, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics], vol. 7(2), pages 279-292.
  • Handle: RePEc:anp:econom:v:7:y:2006:i:2:p:279-292
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    File URL: http://www.anpec.org.br/revista/vol7/vol7n2p279_292.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Barry Eichengreen, 2006. "Can Emerging Markets Float? Should They Inflation Target?," Chapters,in: Monetary Integration and Dollarization, chapter 8 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408.
    3. Stanley Fischer, 2001. "Exchange Rate Regimes: Is the Bipolar View Correct?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 3-24, Spring.
    4. Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann, 1999. "Exchange rates and financial fragility," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 329-368.
    5. André Minella & Paulo Springer de Freitas & Ilan Goldfajn & Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos, 2003. "Inflation targeting in Brazil: lessons and challenges," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in a changing environment, volume 19, pages 106-133 Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Fernando M. Gonçalves & Márcio Holland & Andrei D. Spacov, 2005. "Can Jurisdictional Uncertainty And Capital Controls Explain The High Level Of Real Interest Rates In Brazil? Evidence From Panel Data," Anais do XXXIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 33th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 028, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    7. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Shang-Jin Wei, 2004. "Managing Macroeconomic Crises," NBER Working Papers 10907, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Nogueira, Veridiana de Andrade & Mori, Rogério & Marçal, Emerson Fernandes, 2013. "Transmissão da variação cambial para as taxas de inflação no Brasil: estimação do pass-through através de modelos de vetores autorregressivos estruturais com correção de erros," Textos para discussão 349, FGV/EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange Rate Volatility; Monetary Policy; Exchange Rate Policy; Brazilian Central Bank; Fear of Floating;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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