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Infraestructura portuaria y crecimiento económico regional en la costa oeste del pacífico sur: Un análisis de casualidad de granger

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  • Víctor Chang Rojas
  • Fernando Castro Muro

Abstract

El objetivo del artículo es determinar la relación causal y medir el impacto entre la inversión en infraestructura portuaria y el crecimiento económico regional para 10 macro-regiones del Perú y Chile durante el periodo 2004-2016. Para ello, se emplea un análisis de cointegración para un panel de datos, así como un modelo de corrección de errores y un análisis de causalidad de Granger. La evidencia empírica muestra que existe una causalidad bidireccional en el corto plazo de la inversión en infraestructura portuaria hacia el crecimiento económico y una relación unidireccional en el largo plazo de la inversión en infraestructura portuaria hacia el crecimiento económico. Asimismo, el impacto encontrado es que ante un incremento de USD 1 millón de la inversión en infraestructura portuaria, se genera un aumento de USD 56.11 en el PBI per cápita regional. Por otro lado, se encontró que existen efectos asimétricos en el corto plazo de una mayor inversión en infraestructura portuaria en el PBI per cápita. De esta manera, se evidencia un menor efecto en las macro-regiones de Perú.

Suggested Citation

  • Víctor Chang Rojas & Fernando Castro Muro, 2018. "Infraestructura portuaria y crecimiento económico regional en la costa oeste del pacífico sur: Un análisis de casualidad de granger," Revista de Análisis Económico y Financiero, Universidad de San Martín de Porres, vol. 1(01), pages 43-52.
    • Handle: RePEc:alp:revaef:01-03
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