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A Review of Overconfidence in Behavioral Finance

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  • Ramon Joffre Alan Pires

Abstract

Behavioral finance can be dichotomized into limits to arbitrage and cognitive psychology. While limits to arbitrage describes when markets are inefficient, cognitive psychology refers to how people think. In this review we focus on one well-established bias of cognitive psychology, namely overconfidence. Throughout the literature there are three distinct ways in which overconfidence has been defined: (1) overestimation, (2) overplacement and (3) overprecision. We shortly summarize the ideas of conventional theory about overconfidence, and present the most significant findings of the relevant literature. Hereby we differentiate between studies that investigate overconfidence on the micro level (i.e. individual-level data) and the macro level (i.e. aggregated-level or market-level data). We will also discuss inconsistency across different measures of overconfidence and the reverse phenomena of overconfidence, i.e. underconfidence. To stay within the scope of this work we place our main focus on experimental studies.

Suggested Citation

  • Ramon Joffre Alan Pires, 2020. "A Review of Overconfidence in Behavioral Finance," International Journal of Science and Business, IJSAB International, vol. 4(3), pages 71-78.
    • Handle: RePEc:aif:journl:v:4:y:2020:i:3:p:71-78
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Acker, Daniella & Duck, Nigel W., 2008. "Cross-cultural overconfidence and biased self-attribution," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1815-1824, October.
    2. Meir Statman & Steven Thorley & Keith Vorkink, 2006. "Investor Overconfidence and Trading Volume," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(4), pages 1531-1565.
    3. Kirchler, Erich & Maciejovsky, Boris, 2002. "Simultaneous Over- and Underconfidence: Evidence from Experimental Asset Markets," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 65-85, July.
    4. Terrance Odean, 1999. "Do Investors Trade Too Much?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(5), pages 1279-1298, December.
    5. Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2001. "Boys will be Boys: Gender, Overconfidence, and Common Stock Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 116(1), pages 261-292.
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