Risky Loss Distributions and Modeling the Loss Reserve Pay-out Tail
Although an extensive literature has developed on modeling the loss reserve runoff triangle, the estimation of severity distributions applicable to claims settled in specific cells of the runoff triangle has received little attention in the literature. This paper proposes the use of a very flexible probability density function, the generalized beta of the 2nd kind (GB2) to model severity distributions in the cells of the runoff triangle and illustrates the use of the GB2 based on a sample of nearly 500,000 products liability paid claims. The results show that the GB2 provides a significantly better fit to the severity data than conventional distributions such as the Weibull, Burr 12, and generalized gamma and that modeling severity by cell is important to avoid errors in estimating the riskiness of liability claims payments, especially at the longer lags.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Cummins, J. David & Dionne, Georges & McDonald, James B. & Pritchett, B. Michael, 1990. "Applications of the GB2 family of distributions in modeling insurance loss processes," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 257-272, December.
- David Cummins & Christopher Lewis & Richard Phillips, 1999.
"Pricing Excess-of-Loss Reinsurance Contracts against Cat as trophic Loss,"
in: The Financing of Catastrophe Risk, pages 93-148
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- J. David Cummins & Christopher M. Lewis & Richard D. Phillips, 1998. "Pricing Excess-of-loss Reinsurance Contracts Against Catastrophic Loss," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 98-09, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
- McDonald, James B, 1984. "Some Generalized Functions for the Size Distribution of Income," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 647-663, May.
- Mack, Thomas, 1991. "A Simple Parametric Model for Rating Automobile Insurance or Estimating IBNR Claims Reserves," ASTIN Bulletin: The Journal of the International Actuarial Association, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(01), pages 93-109, April.
- McDonald, James B & Butler, Richard J, 1987. "Some Generalized Mixture Distributions with an Application to Unemployment Duration," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(2), pages 232-240, May.
- Bookstaber, Richard M & McDonald, James B, 1987. "A General Distribution for Describing Security Price Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(3), pages 401-424, July. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:reapec:50154. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.