Risky Loss Distributions and Modeling the Loss Reserve Pay-out Tail
Although an extensive literature has developed on modeling the loss reserve runoff triangle, the estimation of severity distributions applicable to claims settled in specific cells of the runoff triangle has received little attention in the literature. This paper proposes the use of a very flexible probability density function, the generalized beta of the 2nd kind (GB2) to model severity distributions in the cells of the runoff triangle and illustrates the use of the GB2 based on a sample of nearly 500,000 products liability paid claims. The results show that the GB2 provides a significantly better fit to the severity data than conventional distributions such as the Weibull, Burr 12, and generalized gamma and that modeling severity by cell is important to avoid errors in estimating the riskiness of liability claims payments, especially at the longer lags.
References listed on IDEAS
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- J. David Cummins & Richard D. Phillips & Stephen D. Smith, 1997.
"Derivatives and corporate risk management: participation and volume decisions in the insurance industry,"
FRB Atlanta Working Paper
97-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- J. David Cummins & Richard D. Phillips & Stephen D. Smith, 1998. "Derivatives and Corporate Risk Management: Participation and Volume Decisions in the Insurance Industry," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 98-19, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
- Cummins, J. David & Dionne, Georges & McDonald, James B. & Pritchett, B. Michael, 1990. "Applications of the GB2 family of distributions in modeling insurance loss processes," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 257-272, December.
- McDonald, James B & Butler, Richard J, 1987. "Some Generalized Mixture Distributions with an Application to Unemployment Duration," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(2), pages 232-240, May.
- David Cummins & Christopher Lewis & Richard Phillips, 1999. "Pricing Excess-of-Loss Reinsurance Contracts against Cat as trophic Loss," NBER Chapters,in: The Financing of Catastrophe Risk, pages 93-148 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- J. David Cummins & Christopher M. Lewis & Richard D. Phillips, 1998. "Pricing Excess-of-loss Reinsurance Contracts Against Catastrophic Loss," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 98-09, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
- McDonald, James B, 1984. "Some Generalized Functions for the Size Distribution of Income," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 647-663, May.
- Mack, Thomas, 1991. "A Simple Parametric Model for Rating Automobile Insurance or Estimating IBNR Claims Reserves," ASTIN Bulletin: The Journal of the International Actuarial Association, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(01), pages 93-109, April.
- Bookstaber, Richard M & McDonald, James B, 1987. "A General Distribution for Describing Security Price Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(3), pages 401-424, July. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
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