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The New International Regulation of Market Risk: Roles of VaR and CVaR in Model Validation

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Listed:
  • Saissi Hassani, Samir

    (HEC Montreal, Canada Research Chair in Risk Management)

  • Dionne, Georges

    (HEC Montreal, Canada Research Chair in Risk Management)

Abstract

We model the new quantitative aspects of market risk management for banks that Basel established in 2016 and came into effect in January 2019. Market risk is measured by Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) or Expected Shortfall at a confidence level of 97.5%. The regulatory backtest remains largely based on 99% VaR. As additional statistical procedures, in line with the Basel recommendations, supplementary VaR and CVaR backtests must be performed at different confidence levels. We apply these tests to various parametric distributions and use non-parametric measures of CVaR, including CVaR- and CVaR+ to supplement the modelling validation. Our data relate to a period of extreme market turbulence. After testing eight parametric distributions with these data, we find that the information obtained on their empirical performance is closely tied to the backtesting conclusions regarding the competing models.

Suggested Citation

  • Saissi Hassani, Samir & Dionne, Georges, 2021. "The New International Regulation of Market Risk: Roles of VaR and CVaR in Model Validation," Working Papers 21-1, HEC Montreal, Canada Research Chair in Risk Management.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:crcrmw:2021_001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Basel III; VaR; CVaR; Expected Shortfall; backtesting; parametric model; non-parametric model; mixture of distributions; fat-tail distribution;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C44 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Operations Research; Statistical Decision Theory
    • C46 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Specific Distributions
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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