Occupation Change and Technological Unemployment in North Carolina

Occupational change and turnover are constantly occurring, but many analysts predict the trends will accelerate in future decades as technological advances continue and become more capable of performing human tasks. This study examines recent occupational change in North Carolina as well as the potential impacts of technologically-induced unemployment on future employment forecasts. Between 2002 and 2015, both occupations adding employment as well as occupations decreasing employment changed in numbers at an annual average rate of near 3.5%. However, during the years of the Great Recession, annual employment change almost tripled to near 10% for both expanding and contracting occupations. Interestingly, the recessionary period was the only time span where the average wage of expanding occupations exceeded the average wage of contracting occupations. Using a detailed forecast of occupational downsizing resulting from future technology, employment forecasts are found to be significantly lower than forecasts from traditional sources. Hence, if enhanced technological unemployment does occur, future labor markets will be more dependent on job creation in new fields. Also, major changes will be required in higher education institutions and state-run unemployment compensation systems.