IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ags/jrapmc/339902.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Occupation Change and Technological Unemployment in North Carolina

Author

Listed:
  • Walden, Michael L.

Abstract

Occupational change and turnover are constantly occurring, but many analysts predict the trends will accelerate in future decades as technological advances continue and become more capable of performing human tasks. This study examines recent occupational change in North Carolina as well as the potential impacts of technologically-induced unemployment on future employment forecasts. Between 2002 and 2015, both occupations adding employment as well as occupations decreasing employment changed in numbers at an annual average rate of near 3.5%. However, during the years of the Great Recession, annual employment change almost tripled to near 10% for both expanding and contracting occupations. Interestingly, the recessionary period was the only time span where the average wage of expanding occupations exceeded the average wage of contracting occupations. Using a detailed forecast of occupational downsizing resulting from future technology, employment forecasts are found to be significantly lower than forecasts from traditional sources. Hence, if enhanced technological unemployment does occur, future labor markets will be more dependent on job creation in new fields. Also, major changes will be required in higher education institutions and state-run unemployment compensation systems.

Suggested Citation

  • Walden, Michael L., 2017. "Occupation Change and Technological Unemployment in North Carolina," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 48(01), May.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:jrapmc:339902
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.339902
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/339902/files/Walden.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.339902?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 2012. "Smart Machines and Long-Term Misery," NBER Working Papers 18629, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Kerwin Kofi Charles & Erik Hurst & Matthew J Notowidigdo, 2019. "Housing Booms, Manufacturing Decline and Labour Market Outcomes," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(617), pages 209-248.
    3. Acemoglu, Daron & Autor, David, 2011. "Skills, Tasks and Technologies: Implications for Employment and Earnings," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 12, pages 1043-1171, Elsevier.
    4. Higgins, Matthew J. & Levy, Daniel & Young, Andrew T., 2006. "Growth and Convergence across the United States: Evidence from County-Level Data," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 88(4), pages 671-681.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. David Hémous & Morten Olsen, 2022. "The Rise of the Machines: Automation, Horizontal Innovation, and Income Inequality," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 179-223, January.
    2. Henrik Schwabe & Fulvio Castellacci, 2020. "Automation, workers’ skills and job satisfaction," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(11), pages 1-26, November.
    3. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Seth G. Benzell & Guillermo LaGarda, 2015. "Robots: Curse or Blessing? A Basic Framework," NBER Working Papers 21091, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Eric D Gould, 2019. "Explaining the Unexplained: Residual Wage Inequality, Manufacturing Decline and Low-skilled Immigration," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(619), pages 1281-1326.
    5. Berg, Andrew & Buffie, Edward F. & Zanna, Luis-Felipe, 2018. "Should we fear the robot revolution? (The correct answer is yes)," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 117-148.
    6. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2018. "Modeling Automation," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 108, pages 48-53, May.
    7. Benjamin Moll & Lukasz Rachel & Pascual Restrepo, 2022. "Uneven Growth: Automation's Impact on Income and Wealth Inequality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(6), pages 2645-2683, November.
    8. Stephanie Aaronson & Tomaz Cajner & Bruce Fallick & Felix Galbis-Reig & Christopher Smith & William Wascher, 2014. "Labor Force Participation: Recent Developments and Future Prospects," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 45(2 (Fall)), pages 197-275.
    9. Frey, Carl Benedikt & Osborne, Michael A., 2017. "The future of employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerisation?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 254-280.
    10. Seth G. Benzell & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Guillermo LaGarda & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 2015. "Robots Are Us: Some Economics of Human Replacement," NBER Working Papers 20941, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Mr. Andrew Berg & Lahcen Bounader & Nikolay Gueorguiev & Hiroaki Miyamoto & Mr. Kenji Moriyama & Ryota Nakatani & Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2021. "For the Benefit of All: Fiscal Policies and Equity-Efficiency Trade-offs in the Age of Automation," IMF Working Papers 2021/187, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Elisa Giannone, 2017. "Skill-Biased Technical Change and Regional Convergence," 2017 Meeting Papers 190, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. repec:osf:socarx:d93sj_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Nir Jaimovich & Henry E. Siu, 2020. "Job Polarization and Jobless Recoveries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(1), pages 129-147, March.
    15. Dylan Shane Connor & Tom Kemeny & Michael Storper, 2024. "Frontier workers and the seedbeds of inequality and prosperity," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 24(3), pages 393-414.
    16. repec:uta:papers:2015_01 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. van Hoorn, Andre, 2018. "The Political Economy of Automation: Occupational Automatability and Preferences for Redistribution," MPRA Paper 86460, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2016. "The Race Between Machine and Man: Implications of Technology for Growth, Factor Shares and Employment," NBER Working Papers 22252, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Daniil Kashkarov, 2022. "RBTC and Human Capital: Accounting for Individual-Level Responses," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp721, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    20. Bo Chen & Dong Tan, 2023. "Industrial Robots and the Employment Quality of Migrant Workers in the Manufacturing Industry," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-21, May.
    21. Matthess, Marcel & Kunkel, Stefanie, 2020. "Structural change and digitalization in developing countries: Conceptually linking the two transformations," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    22. Jithitikulchai, Theepakorn, 2020. "Labour Skills, Economic Returns, and Automatability in Thailand," MPRA Paper 119748, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:jrapmc:339902. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/mcrsaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.