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Risk And Return In Agriculture: Evidence From An Explicit-Factor Arbitrage Pricing Model

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  • Bjornson, Bruce
  • Innes, Robert

Abstract

This article develops and estimates an explicit-factor Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) model in an endeavor to uncover (a) the systematic risk properties of returns to agricultural assets, (b) the relationship between agricultural returns and returns on comparable-risk nonagricultural assets, and (c) the possible relevance of agriculture-related risks in general capital markets. The article concludes that: (a) farmer-held assets have exhibited significant systematic/ factor risk over the 1963-82 estimation interval, but U.S. farmland has not exhibited such risk; (b) a grain-price index has been a priced factor in general capital markets; and (c) average returns on farmer-held assets have been significantly lower; and average returns on U.S. farmland significantly higher, than those on comparable-risk nonagricultural assets.

Suggested Citation

  • Bjornson, Bruce & Innes, Robert, 1992. "Risk And Return In Agriculture: Evidence From An Explicit-Factor Arbitrage Pricing Model," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 17(2), pages 1-21, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:jlaare:30946
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.30946
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sherrick, Bruce J. & Irwin, Scott H. & Forster, D. Lynn, 1986. "Returns to Capital in Agriculture: A Historical View Using Portfolio Theory," 1986 Annual Meeting, July 27-30, Reno, Nevada 278457, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    2. Chamberlain, Gary & Rothschild, Michael, 1983. "Arbitrage, Factor Structure, and Mean-Variance Analysis on Large Asset Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(5), pages 1281-1304, September.
    3. Stephen A. Ross, 2013. "The Arbitrage Theory of Capital Asset Pricing," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 1, pages 11-30, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Connor, Gregory & Korajczyk, Robert A., 1988. "Risk and return in an equilibrium APT : Application of a new test methodology," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 255-289, September.
    5. Chen, Nai-Fu & Roll, Richard & Ross, Stephen A, 1986. "Economic Forces and the Stock Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(3), pages 383-403, July.
    6. Connor, Gregory, 1984. "A unified beta pricing theory," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 13-31, October.
    7. Louise M. Arthur & Colin A. Carter & Fay Abizadeh, 1988. "Arbitrage Pricing, Capital Asset Pricing, and Agricultural Assets," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 70(2), pages 359-365.
    8. Moss, Charles B. & Featherstone, Allen M. & Baker, Timothy G., 1986. "Stocks, Bonds, Bills, And Farm Assets: A Portfolio Analysis," 1986 Annual Meeting, July 27-30, Reno, Nevada 278487, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    9. Ferson, Wayne E & Harvey, Campbell R, 1991. "The Variation of Economic Risk Premiums," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 385-415, April.
    10. Scott H. Irwin & D. Lynn Forster & Bruce J. Sherrick, 1988. "Returns to Farm Real Estate Revisited," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 70(3), pages 580-587.
    11. Litzenberger, Robert H. & Ramaswamy, Krishna, 1979. "The effect of personal taxes and dividends on capital asset prices : Theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 163-195, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mishra, Ashok K. & Dedah, Cheikhna O., 2008. "Farmland Values, Government Payments, and the Overall Risk to U.S. Agriculture: A Structural Equation-Latent Variable Model," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6569, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    2. Rulon D. Pope & Jeffrey T. LaFrance & Richard E. Just, 2007. "Imperfect Price Deflation in Production Systems," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 89(3), pages 738-754.
    3. M J López-Baldovin & C Gutiérrez-Martin & J Berbel, 2006. "Multicriteria and multiperiod programming for scenario analysis in Guadalquivir river irrigated farming," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 57(5), pages 499-509, May.

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