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Determinants of Uneven Progress in Sustainable Development in the EU: Predictive Approaches Based on Machine Learning

Author

Listed:
  • Mihail Busu

    (Bucharest University of Economic Studies, Romania)

  • Mihai Gheorghe

    (Bucharest University of Economic Studies, Romania)

  • Gabriel Staicu

    (Bucharest University of Economic Studies, Romania)

  • Enrico Prinz

    (EM Strasbourg Business School - University of Strasbourg, France)

  • Luis Miguel Fonseca

    (ISEP, Polytechnic University of Porto, Portugal)

Abstract

This paper investigates the relative importance of distributional versus structural socioeconomic variables in predicting the performance of Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) across European Union member states. Using a comprehensive panel dataset and advanced machine learning techniques, the study demonstrates that distributional indicators such as income inequality and poverty thresholds have stronger and more consistent predictive power than traditional macroeconomic measures. Moreover, the research uncovers a non-linear relationship between inequality and SDG outcomes, revealing a threshold effect where reductions from high to moderate inequality levels yield greater improvements than further reductions. Finally, regional location within Europe is found to be a significant predictor of SDG performance even after controlling for economic and social factors, highlighting persistent structural differences between Southern and Northern/Western European regions. These findings offer robust insights for policymakers aiming to design more targeted and equitable sustainability strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Mihail Busu & Mihai Gheorghe & Gabriel Staicu & Enrico Prinz & Luis Miguel Fonseca, 2025. "Determinants of Uneven Progress in Sustainable Development in the EU: Predictive Approaches Based on Machine Learning," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 27(S19), pages 1272-1272, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:aes:amfeco:v:27:y:2025:i:s19:p:1272
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • Q01 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Sustainable Development
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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