IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/aen/journl/2003v24-04-a04.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Improving Long-Range Energy Modeling: A Plea for Historical Retrospectives

Author

Listed:
  • Jonathan Koomey
  • Paul Craig
  • Ashok Gadgil
  • David Lorenzetti

Abstract

One of the most striking things about forecasters is their lack of historical perspective. They rarely do retrospectives, even though looking back at past work can both illuminate the reasons for its success or failure, and improve the methodologies of current and future forecasts. One of the best and most famous retrospectives is that by Hans Landsberg, which investigates work conducted by Landsberg, Sam Schurr, and others. In this article, written mainly for model users, we highlight Landsberg s retrospective as a uniquely valuable contribution to improving forecasting methodologies. We also encourage model users to support such retrospectives more frequently. Finally, we give the current generation of analysts the kind of guidance we believe Landsberg and Sam Schurr would have offered about how to do retrospectives well.

Suggested Citation

  • Jonathan Koomey & Paul Craig & Ashok Gadgil & David Lorenzetti, 2003. "Improving Long-Range Energy Modeling: A Plea for Historical Retrospectives," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 75-92.
  • Handle: RePEc:aen:journl:2003v24-04-a04
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.iaee.org/en/publications/ejarticle.aspx?id=1420
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to IAEE members and subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sohn, Ira, 2007. "Long-term energy projections: What lessons have we learned?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 4574-4584, September.
    2. repec:eee:appene:v:220:y:2018:i:c:p:138-153 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Liao, Hua & Cai, Jia-Wei & Yang, Dong-Wei & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2016. "Why did the historical energy forecasting succeed or fail? A case study on IEA's projection," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 90-96.
    4. Koomey, Jonathan & Hultman, Nathan E., 2007. "A reactor-level analysis of busbar costs for US nuclear plants, 1970-2005," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 5630-5642, November.
    5. Keirstead, James & Jennings, Mark & Sivakumar, Aruna, 2012. "A review of urban energy system models: Approaches, challenges and opportunities," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 3847-3866.
    6. repec:eee:appene:v:202:y:2017:i:c:p:597-617 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Irene Scher & Jonathan Koomey, 2011. "Is accurate forecasting of economic systems possible?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(3), pages 473-479, February.
    8. Baomin Dong & Xuefeng Li & Boqiang Lin, 2010. "Forecasting Long-Run Coal Price in China: A Shifting Trend Time-Series Approach," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(s1), pages 499-519, August.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aen:journl:2003v24-04-a04. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (David Williams). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/iaeeeea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.