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The Incentive Effects of Marginal Tax Rates: Evidence from the Interwar Era

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  • Christina D. Romer
  • David H. Romer

Abstract

This paper uses the interwar United States as a laboratory for investigating the incentive effects of marginal income tax rates. We examine the impact of the large changes in rates in this period on taxable income using time-series/cross-section analysis of data by small slices of the income distribution. We find that the effect operated in the expected direction but was economically small, and that it is precisely estimated and highly robust. We also find suggestive time-series evidence of a positive impact of marginal rate cuts on business formation, but no evidence of an important effect on other indicators of investment.

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  • Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2014. "The Incentive Effects of Marginal Tax Rates: Evidence from the Interwar Era," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 6(3), pages 242-281, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejpol:v:6:y:2014:i:3:p:242-81
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/pol.6.3.242
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    Cited by:

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    3. Patrick Macnamara & Myroslav Pidkuyko & Raffaele Rossi, 2021. "Marginal Tax Rates and Income in the Long Run: Evidence from a Structural Estimation," Economics Discussion Paper Series 2105, Economics, The University of Manchester, revised Jan 2022.
    4. Karel Mertens & José Luis Montiel Olea, 2018. "Marginal Tax Rates and Income: New Time Series Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(4), pages 1803-1884.
    5. Riera-Crichton, Daniel & Vegh, Carlos A. & Vuletin, Guillermo, 2016. "Tax multipliers: Pitfalls in measurement and identification," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 30-48.
    6. Robert A. Moffitt, 2012. "The Reveral of the Employment-Population Ratio in the 2000s: Facts and Explanations," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 43(2 (Fall)), pages 201-264.
    7. Georgios Karras, 2019. "Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Evidence from a Sample of OECD Countries," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 69(3), pages 111-138, July-Sept.
    8. Kazuki Onji & John P. Tang, 2015. "A nation without a corporate income tax: Evidence from nineteenth century Japan," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 15-12, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics.
    9. Postel-Vinay, Natacha & Cloyne, James & Dimsdale, Nicholas, 2018. "Taxes and Growth: New Narrative Evidence from Interwar Britain," CEPR Discussion Papers 12962, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Patrick Macnamara & Myroslav Pidkuyko & Raffaele Rossi, 2021. "Marginal tax changes with risky investment," Working Papers 2116, Banco de España.
    11. Santo Milasi, 2014. "Top Income Shares and Budget Deficits," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, issue 1, pages 383-406, January-M.
    12. Winter, Stefan & Pfitztner, Alexander, 2013. "Externalities and subsidization of higher education," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79993, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    13. Owen Zidar, 2019. "Tax Cuts for Whom? Heterogeneous Effects of Income Tax Changes on Growth and Employment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(3), pages 1437-1472.
    14. Marco Alfò & Lorenzo Carbonari & Giovanni Trovato, 2020. "On the Effects of Taxation on Growth: an Empirical Assessment," CEIS Research Paper 480, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 08 May 2020.
    15. Onji, Kazuki & Tang, John P., 2017. "Taxes and the Choice of Organizational Form in Late Nineteenth Century Japan," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 77(2), pages 440-472, June.
    16. João Tovar Jalles & Georgios Karras, 2023. "Tax Progressivity and Output: Evidence from OECD countries," Working Papers REM 2023/0293, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    17. Kashif Munir & Nimra Riaz, 2020. "Macroeconomic Effects of Exogenous Fiscal Policy Shocks in Pakistan: A Disaggregated SVAR Analysis," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 233(2), pages 141-165, June.
    18. Dimitri B. Papadimitriou & Michalis Nikiforos & Gennaro Zezza, 2019. "Can Redistribution Help Build a More Stable Economy?," Economics Strategic Analysis Archive sa_4_19, Levy Economics Institute.
    19. Glenn P. Jenkins & Amin Sokhanvar & Hasan Ulaş Altıok, 2021. "Reforming the Individual Direct Taxation System of North Cyprus," Development Discussion Papers 2021-08, JDI Executive Programs.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • H24 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies
    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household
    • M13 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Administration - - - New Firms; Startups
    • N42 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-

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