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Can Tax Rebates Stimulate Consumption Spending in a Life-Cycle Model?

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  • Jonathan Huntley
  • Valentina Michelangeli

Abstract

We build a life-cycle model with earnings risk, liquidity constraints, and portfolio choice over tax-deferred and taxable assets to evaluate how household consumption changes in response to shocks to transitory anticipated income, such as the 2001 income tax rebate. Households optimally invest in tax-deferred assets, which are encumbered by withdrawal penalties, and exchange taxable precautionary savings for higher after-tax returns. The model predicts a higher marginal propensity to consume out of a rebate than is predicted by a standard frictionless life-cycle model. Liquidity-constrained households?with few financial assets or portfolios expensive to reallocate?consume a higher fraction of the rebates.

Suggested Citation

  • Jonathan Huntley & Valentina Michelangeli, 2014. "Can Tax Rebates Stimulate Consumption Spending in a Life-Cycle Model?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(1), pages 162-189, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmac:v:6:y:2014:i:1:p:162-89
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/mac.6.1.162
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sumit Agarwal & Chunlin Liu & Nicholas S. Souleles, 2007. "The Reaction of Consumer Spending and Debt to Tax Rebates-Evidence from Consumer Credit Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(6), pages 986-1019, December.
    2. Andrew B. Abel & Janice C. Eberly & Stavros Panageas, 2013. "Optimal Inattention to the Stock Market With Information Costs and Transactions Costs," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(4), pages 1455-1481, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Yang & Zhou, Yang & Yu, Xinxin & Liu, Xiao, 2021. "Is domestic consumption dragged down by real estate sector?—Evidence from Chinese household wealth," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    2. Arna Olafsson & Michaela Pagel, 2018. "The Liquid Hand-to-Mouth: Evidence from Personal Finance Management Software," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(11), pages 4398-4446.
    3. Zizza, Roberta & Adamopoulou, Effrosyni, 2017. "Regular versus lump-sum payments in union contracts and household consumption," Working Paper Series 2013, European Central Bank.
    4. Andrea Neri & Concetta Rondinelli & Filippo Scoccianti, 2017. "Household spending out of a tax rebate: Italian ��80 tax bonus�," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 379, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    5. Effrosyni Adamopoulou & Roberta Zizza, 2015. "Accessorizing. The effect of union contract renewals on consumption," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1024, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    6. Neri, Andrea & Rondinelli, Concetta & Scoccianti, Filippo, 2017. "Household spending out of a tax rebate: Italian “€80 tax bonus”," Working Paper Series 2099, European Central Bank.
    7. Riccardo De Bonis & Danilo Liberati & John Muellbauer & Concetta Rondinelli, 2020. "Consumption and wealth: new evidence from Italy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1304, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    8. Kartik Athreya & Andrew Owens & Felipe Schwartzman, 2017. "Does redistribution increase output? The centrality of labor supply," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 8(3), pages 761-808, November.
    9. Broda, Christian & Parker, Jonathan A., 2014. "The Economic Stimulus Payments of 2008 and the aggregate demand for consumption," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(S), pages 20-36.
    10. Arna Vardardottir & Michaela Pagel, 2016. "The Liquid Hand-to-Mouth: Evidence from a Personal Finance Management Software," 2016 Meeting Papers 789, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. Greg Kaplan & Giovanni L. Violante & Justin Weidner, 2014. "The Wealthy Hand-to-Mouth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 45(1 (Spring), pages 77-153.
    12. Antonio Antunes & Valerio Ercolani, 2020. "Public debt expansions and the dynamics of the household borrowing constraint," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 37, pages 1-32, July.
    13. Jonathan Huntley & Valentina Michelangeli & Felix Reichling, 2021. "What drives investors to chase returns?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1334, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    14. Lo, Kuang-Ta & Chou, Ta-Sheng & Tsui, Stephanie, 2020. "The asymmetric behavior of household consumption under the business cycle," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    15. Greg Kaplan & Giovanni L. Violante & Justin Weidner, 2014. "The Wealthy Hand-to-Mouth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(1 (Spring), pages 77-153.
    16. Kanishka Misra & Paolo Surico, 2014. "Consumption, Income Changes, and Heterogeneity: Evidence from Two Fiscal Stimulus Programs," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 84-106, October.
    17. Rowena Crawford & Cormac O'Dea, 2014. "Cash and Pensions: Have the elderly in England saved optimally for retirement?," IFS Working Papers W14/22, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    18. Bouyon, Sylvain, 2014. "A Review of Policy Options for Monitoring Household Saving," ECRI Papers 9754, Centre for European Policy Studies.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • H24 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies

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    1. Can Tax Rebates Stimulate Consumption Spending in a Life-Cycle Model? (AEJ:MA 2014) in ReplicationWiki

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