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Lumpy Investment, Business Cycles, and Stimulus Policy

Author

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  • Thomas Winberry

Abstract

I study the aggregate implications of micro-level lumpy investment in a model consistent with the empirical dynamics of the real interest rate. The elasticity of aggregate investment with respect to shocks is procyclical because more firms are likely to make an extensive margin investment in expansions than in recessions. Matching the dynamics of the real interest rate is key to generating this result because it disciplines the interest-elasticity of investment and avoids counterfactual behavior of the model that would otherwise eliminate most of the procyclical responsiveness. Therefore, data on interest rates place important discipline in aggregating micro-level investment behavior.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Winberry, 2021. "Lumpy Investment, Business Cycles, and Stimulus Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(1), pages 364-396, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:111:y:2021:i:1:p:364-96
    DOI: 10.1257/aer.20161723
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Baley, Isaac & Blanco, Andres, 2022. "The Long-Run Effects of Corporate Tax Reforms," CEPR Discussion Papers 16936, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Görtz, Christoph & Sakellaris, Plutarchos & Tsoukalas, John D., 2023. "Firms’ financing dynamics around lumpy capacity adjustments," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    3. Reiter Michael & Sveen Tommy & Weinke Lutz, 2023. "Idiosyncratic Shocks, Lumpy Investment and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 23(2), pages 1037-1055, June.
    4. Lee, Hanbaek, 2022. "Striking While the Iron Is Cold: Fragility after a Surge of Lumpy Investments," MPRA Paper 115872, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Isaac Baley & Andrés Blanco, 2021. "Aggregate Dynamics in Lumpy Economies," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(3), pages 1235-1264, May.
    6. Guceri, Irem & Albinowski, Maciej, 2021. "Investment responses to tax policy under uncertainty," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(3), pages 1147-1170.
    7. Eddie Dekel & John K. -H. Quah & Ludvig Sinander, 2022. "Comparative statics with adjustment costs and the le Chatelier principle," Papers 2206.00347, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2024.
    8. Jože Damijan & Jozef Konings & Črt Kostevc & Katja Zajc Kejžar, 2022. "Explaining the Low Level of Investment in Slovenia," European Economy - Discussion Papers 169, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    9. Joao Ayres & Gajendran Raveendranathan, 2023. "Firm Entry and Exit during Recessions," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 47, pages 47-66, January.
    10. Joao Ayres & Gajendran Raveendranathan, 2023. "Firm Entry and Exit during Recessions," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 47, pages 47-66, January.
    11. Francesco Furno, 2021. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Corporate Tax Reforms," Papers 2111.12799, arXiv.org.
    12. Michael Funke & Raphael Terasa, 2022. "Temporary Super Depreciation Allowances for Green and Digital Investments," CESifo Working Paper Series 9838, CESifo.
    13. Isaac Baley & Andrés Blanco, 2022. "The Macroeconomics of Partial Irreversibility," Working Papers 1312, Barcelona School of Economics.
    14. Richard Audoly, 2023. "Firm Dynamics and Random Search over the Business Cycle," Staff Reports 1069, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D25 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Intertemporal Firm Choice: Investment, Capacity, and Financing
    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies
    • H25 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Business Taxes and Subsidies

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