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Estimating a War of Attrition: The Case of the US Movie Theater Industry

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  • Yuya Takahashi

Abstract

This paper empirically studies firm's strategic exit decisions in an environment where demand is declining. Specifically, I quantify the extent to which the exit process generated by firms' strategic interactions deviates from the outcome that maximizes industry profits. I develop and estimate a dynamic exit game using data from the US movie theater industry in the 1950s, when the industry faced demand declines. Using the estimated model, I quantify the magnitude of strategic delays and find that strategic interactions cause an average delay of exit of 2.7 years. I calculate the relative importance of several components of these strategic delays. (JEL D92, L11, L82, N72)

Suggested Citation

  • Yuya Takahashi, 2015. "Estimating a War of Attrition: The Case of the US Movie Theater Industry," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(7), pages 2204-2241, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:105:y:2015:i:7:p:2204-41
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/aer.20110701
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Victor Aguirregabiria & Pedro Mira, 2007. "Sequential Estimation of Dynamic Discrete Games," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(1), pages 1-53, January.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Victor Aguirregabiria & Allan Collard-Wexler & Stephen P. Ryan, 2021. "Dynamic Games in Empirical Industrial Organization," Papers 2109.01725, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2021.
    2. Abbring, Jaap & Campbell, J.R. & Tilly, J. & Yang, N., 2018. "Very Simple Markov-Perfect Industry Dynamics (revision of 2017-021) : Empirics," Discussion Paper 2018-040, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    3. Yingyao Hu & Yi Xin, 2019. "Identi?cation and estimation of dynamic structural models with unobserved choices," CeMMAP working papers CWP35/19, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    4. Sasaki, Yuya & Takahashi, Yuya & Xin, Yi & Hu, Yingyao, 2023. "Dynamic discrete choice models with incomplete data: Sharp identification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 236(1).
    5. Kimbrough, Erik O. & Laughren, Kevin & Sheremeta, Roman, 2020. "War and conflict in economics: Theories, applications, and recent trends," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 998-1013.
    6. Georgiadis, George & Kim, Youngsoo & Kwon, H. Dharma, 2022. "The absence of attrition in a war of attrition under complete information," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 171-185.
    7. Décamps, Jean-Paul & Gensbittel, Fabien & Mariotti, Thomas, 2022. "The War of Attrition under Uncertainty: Theory and Robust Testable Implications," TSE Working Papers 22-1374, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE), revised Dec 2025.
    8. Maxime Menuet & Petros G. Sekeris, 2022. "Engaging in Wars of Attrition," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 147, pages 79-100.
    9. El Hadi Caoui, 2019. "Estimating the Costs of Standardization: Evidence from the Movie Industry," CESifo Working Paper Series 8040, CESifo.
    10. Jaap H. Abbring & Jeffrey R. Campbell & Jan Tilly & Nan Yang, 2018. "Very Simple Markov-Perfect Industry Dynamics: Empirics," Working Paper Series WP-2018-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D92 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Intertemporal Firm Choice, Investment, Capacity, and Financing
    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms
    • L82 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Entertainment; Media
    • N72 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-

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