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Challenges in Merger Simulation Analysis

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  • Christopher R. Knittel
  • Konstantinos Metaxoglou

Abstract

In this paper, we share our experience with merger simulations using a Random Coefficient Logit model on the demand side and assuming a static Bertrand game on the supply side. Drawing largely from our work in Knittel and Metaxoglou (2008), we show that different demand estimates obtained from different combinations of optimization algorithms and starting values lead to substantial differences in post-merger market outcomes using metrics such as industry profits, and change in consumer welfare and prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher R. Knittel & Konstantinos Metaxoglou, 2011. "Challenges in Merger Simulation Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(3), pages 56-59, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:101:y:2011:i:3:p:56-59
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jean-Pierre H. Dubé & Jeremy T. Fox & Che-Lin Su, 2009. "Improving the Numerical Performance of BLP Static and Dynamic Discrete Choice Random Coefficients Demand Estimation," NBER Working Papers 14991, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Nevo, Aviv, 2001. "Measuring Market Power in the Ready-to-Eat Cereal Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(2), pages 307-342, March.
    3. Steven T. Berry, 1994. "Estimating Discrete-Choice Models of Product Differentiation," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 25(2), pages 242-262, Summer.
    4. Berry, Steven & Levinsohn, James & Pakes, Ariel, 1995. "Automobile Prices in Market Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(4), pages 841-890, July.
    5. Aviv Nevo, 2000. "A Practitioner's Guide to Estimation of Random‐Coefficients Logit Models of Demand," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(4), pages 513-548, December.
    6. Christopher R. Knittel & Konstantinos Metaxoglou, 2008. "Estimation of Random Coefficient Demand Models: Challenges, Difficulties and Warnings," NBER Working Papers 14080, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Tommaso Valletti & Hans Zenger, 2021. "Mergers with Differentiated Products: Where Do We Stand?," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 58(1), pages 179-212, February.
    2. Peter Davis & Pasquale Schiraldi, 2014. "The flexible coefficient multinomial logit (FC-MNL) model of demand for differentiated products," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 45(1), pages 32-63, March.
    3. Welter, Dominik & Napel, Stefan, 2016. "Responsibility-based allocation of cartel damages," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145886, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    4. Kiriti Kanjilal & Ana Espinola-Arredondo & Felix Munoz-Garcia, 2024. "Strategic Merger Approvals Under Incomplete Information," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 65(3), pages 759-791, November.

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