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Credit Ratings and Security Prices in the Subprime MBS Market

Author

Listed:
  • Adam Ashcraft
  • Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham
  • Peter Hull
  • James Vickery

Abstract

We present and discuss preliminary evidence suggesting that credit ratings significantly influenced prices for subprime mortgage-backed securities issued in the period leading up to the recent financial crisis. Ratings are closely correlated with prices even controlling for a rich set of security- and loan-level controls. This incremental variation in ratings has much less predictive power for security defaults, however, based on findings to date from our ongoing research, suggesting prices were excessively sensitive to ratings relative to their informational content.

Suggested Citation

  • Adam Ashcraft & Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham & Peter Hull & James Vickery, 2011. "Credit Ratings and Security Prices in the Subprime MBS Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(3), pages 115-119, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:101:y:2011:i:3:p:115-19
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    File URL: http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/aer.101.3.115
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    1. Adam B. Ashcraft & Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham & James Vickery, 2010. "MBS ratings and the mortgage credit boom," Staff Reports 449, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
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    Cited by:

    1. Efing, Matthias & Hau, Harald, 2015. "Structured debt ratings: Evidence on conflicts of interest," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 46-60.
    2. Jean Paul Rabanal & Olga A. Rabanal, 2015. "Does competition affect truth-telling? An experiment with rating agencies," Working Papers 2015-48, Peruvian Economic Association.
    3. Tobias Adrian & Adam B. Ashcraft, 2012. "Shadow Banking Regulation," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 99-140, October.
    4. Rossen Valkanov & Andra Ghent, 2014. "Complexity in Structured Finance: Financial Wizardry or Smoke and Mirrors," 2014 Meeting Papers 104, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. Adelino, Manuel & Gerardi, Kristopher S. & Hartman-Glaser, Barney, 2016. "Are Lemons Sold First? Dynamic Signaling in the Mortgage Market," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2016-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, revised 01 Feb 2017.
    6. Adrian, Tobias & Liang, J. Nellie, 2014. "Monetary policy, financial conditions, and financial stability," Staff Reports 690, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, revised 01 Dec 2016.
    7. Thomas Mählmann, 2016. "Market share and risk taking: the role of collateral asset managers in the collapse of the arbitrage CDO market," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 273-303, August.
    8. Lugo, Stefano, 2014. "Discretionary ratings and the pricing of subprime mortgage-backed securities," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 248-260.
    9. Spyros Pagratis, 2013. "Ratings Hardwiring and Asset Prices," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 80(320), pages 621-649, October.
    10. Opp, Christian C. & Opp, Marcus M. & Harris, Milton, 2013. "Rating agencies in the face of regulation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 46-61.
    11. Braun, Tobias, 2011. "Wie interagieren Banken und Ratingagenturen? Eine ökonomische Analyse des Bewertungsmarktes für strukturierte Finanzprodukte," Discussion Papers 2011-17, Martin Luther University of Halle-Wittenberg, Chair of Economic Ethics.
    12. repec:oup:rcorpf:v:2:y:2014:i:2:p:154-187. is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Yun Wang & Yilan Xu, 2015. "Race to the Top: Credit Rating Bias from Competition," WISE Working Papers 2015-05-12, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University, revised 13 May 2015.

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