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Credit Ratings and Security Prices in the Subprime MBS Market

Author

Listed:
  • Adam Ashcraft
  • Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham
  • Peter Hull
  • James Vickery

Abstract

We present and discuss preliminary evidence suggesting that credit ratings significantly influenced prices for subprime mortgage-backed securities issued in the period leading up to the recent financial crisis. Ratings are closely correlated with prices even controlling for a rich set of security- and loan-level controls. This incremental variation in ratings has much less predictive power for security defaults, however, based on findings to date from our ongoing research, suggesting prices were excessively sensitive to ratings relative to their informational content.

Suggested Citation

  • Adam Ashcraft & Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham & Peter Hull & James Vickery, 2011. "Credit Ratings and Security Prices in the Subprime MBS Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(3), pages 115-119, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:101:y:2011:i:3:p:115-19
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ashcraft, A. & Goldsmith-Pinkham, P. & Vickery, J., 2010. "MBS Ratings and the Mortgage Credit Boom," Other publications TiSEM aea4b6fb-eb57-49d4-a347-f, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
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    Cited by:

    1. Yang, Liuyong & Wang, Rui & Chen, Zhenyi & Luo, Xingguo, 2020. "What determines the issue price of lease asset-backed securities in China?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    2. Manuel Adelino & Kristopher S. Gerardi & Barney Hartman-Glaser, 2016. "Are Lemons Sold First? Dynamic Signaling in the Mortgage Market," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2016-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, revised 01 Feb 2017.
    3. Tobias Adrian & Nellie Liang, 2018. "Monetary Policy, Financial Conditions, and Financial Stability," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(1), pages 73-131, January.
    4. Shi, Lan & Zhang, Yan, 2018. "The effect of mortgage broker licensing under the originate-to-distribute model: Evidence from the U.S. mortgage market," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 35(PA), pages 70-85.
    5. Lugo, Stefano, 2014. "Discretionary ratings and the pricing of subprime mortgage-backed securities," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 248-260.
    6. Efing, Matthias & Hau, Harald, 2015. "Structured debt ratings: Evidence on conflicts of interest," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 46-60.
    7. Adrian, Tobias & Ashcraft, Adam & Breuer, Peter & Cetorelli, Nicola, 2018. "A Review of Shadow Banking," CEPR Discussion Papers 13363, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Braun, Tobias, 2011. "Wie interagieren Banken und Ratingagenturen? Eine ökonomische Analyse des Bewertungsmarktes für strukturierte Finanzprodukte," Discussion Papers 2011-17, Martin Luther University of Halle-Wittenberg, Chair of Economic Ethics.
    9. Dennis Vink & Mike Nawas & Vivian van Breemen, 2019. "Security design and credit rating risk in the CLO market," DNB Working Papers 643, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    10. Yun Wang & Yilan Xu, 2015. "Race to the Top: Credit Rating Bias from Competition," Working Papers 2015-05-12, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University, revised 10 Jul 2015.
    11. Jean Paul Rabanal & Olga A Rud, 2018. "Does Competition Affect Truth Telling? An Experiment with Rating Agencies," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 22(4), pages 1581-1604.
    12. Juan Ospina & Harald Uhlig, 2018. "Mortgage-Backed Securities and the Financial Crisis of 2008: a Post Mortem," NBER Working Papers 24509, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Tobias Adrian & Adam B. Ashcraft, 2012. "Shadow Banking Regulation," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 99-140, October.
    14. Rossen Valkanov & Andra Ghent, 2014. "Complexity in Structured Finance: Financial Wizardry or Smoke and Mirrors," 2014 Meeting Papers 104, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    15. Thomas Mählmann, 2016. "Market share and risk taking: the role of collateral asset managers in the collapse of the arbitrage CDO market," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 273-303, August.
    16. Spyros Pagratis, 2013. "Ratings Hardwiring and Asset Prices," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 80(320), pages 621-649, October.
    17. Adelino, Manuel & Gerardi, Kristopher & Hartman-Glaser, Barney, 2019. "Are lemons sold first? Dynamic signaling in the mortgage market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 1-25.
    18. Opp, Christian C. & Opp, Marcus M. & Harris, Milton, 2013. "Rating agencies in the face of regulation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 46-61.
    19. Craig H. Furfine, 2014. "Complexity and Loan Performance: Evidence from the Securitization of Commercial Mortgages," Review of Corporate Finance Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 2(2), pages 154-187.

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