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Analyst Promotions within Credit Rating Agencies: Accuracy or Bias?

Author

Listed:
  • Kisgen, Darren J.
  • Nickerson, Jordan
  • Osborn, Matthew
  • Reuter, Jonathan

Abstract

We estimate Moody’s preference for accurate versus biased ratings using hand-collected data on the internal labor market outcomes of its analysts. We find that accurate analysts are more likely to be promoted and less likely to depart. The opposite is true for analysts who downgrade more frequently, who assign ratings below those predicted by a ratings model, and whose downgrades are associated with large negative market reactions. Downgraded firms are also more likely to be assigned a new analyst. These patterns are consistent with Moody’s balancing its desire for accuracy against its corporate clients’ desire for higher ratings.

Suggested Citation

  • Kisgen, Darren J. & Nickerson, Jordan & Osborn, Matthew & Reuter, Jonathan, 2020. "Analyst Promotions within Credit Rating Agencies: Accuracy or Bias?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 55(3), pages 869-896, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:55:y:2020:i:3:p:869-896_5
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    Cited by:

    1. Kilian R. Dinkelaker & Andreas-Walter Mattig & Stefan Morkoetter, 2019. "A Closer Look at Credt Rating Processes: Uncovering the Impact of Analyst Rotation," Working Papers on Finance 1911, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    2. Goergen, Marc & Gounopoulos, Dimitrios & Koutroumpis, Panagiotis, 2021. "Do multiple credit ratings reduce money left on the table? Evidence from U.S. IPOs," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    3. Elisabeth Kempf & Margarita Tsoutsoura, 2021. "Partisan Professionals: Evidence from Credit Rating Analysts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(6), pages 2805-2856, December.
    4. Altdörfer, Marc & Guettler, Andre & Löffler, Gunter, 2024. "Analyst distance and credit rating consistency," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    5. Boermans, Martijn A. & van der Kroft, Bram, 2024. "Capital regulation induced reaching for systematic yield: Financial instability through fire sales," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    6. Matthieu Bouvard & Raphaël Levy, 2018. "Two-Sided Reputation in Certification Markets," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(10), pages 4755-4774, October.
    7. Deng, Kaihua & Qiao, Guannan, 2022. "Triple A default," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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