IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ach/journl/y2017id589.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Strategic planning and forecasting system in the Russian Federation: a regional projection

Author

Listed:
  • L. I. Vlasyuk

Abstract

The article is devoted to the system of strategic planning and forecasting at the RF subject level and methodical support for forecasting on the principles outlined in Federal Law No. 172-FL of June 28, 2014 «On Strategic Planning in the Russian Federation». According to the Federal Law, subjects of the Russian Federation develop organizational and methodological support themselves. The forecast is based on the forecast of the socio-economic development and scientific and technological development of the Russian Federation. Considering the fact that there are no methodological elaborations available both for drawing up a regional development strategy and for building regional forecasts at the moment it is necessary to prepare methodological recommendations and tools for constructing forecasts at the level of a the Russian Federation subject corresponding with the world level and allowing to hierarchically link forecast and strategic elaborations at the municipal, regional and federal levels. The article is a step in this direction. The paper describes methodological principles of preparing economic forecasts. The features of the development and content of forecasts for the short, medium and long term are analyzed. A particular attention is paid to the long-term forecast designed to justify the possible state of the socio-economic system in the future, and to determine alternative ways of its development. The peculiarities of the region as an object for medium and long-term forecasting are revealed. Economic development in the long term perspective always involves structural transformation. The level of forecast reliability will be determined by resources of the tools used. As tools which can be taken to use and simulate changes appear elaborations based on inter-industry models, with elements of dynamic optimization appear. Â

Suggested Citation

  • L. I. Vlasyuk, 2017. "Strategic planning and forecasting system in the Russian Federation: a regional projection," Russian Journal of Industrial Economics, MISIS, vol. 10(2).
    • Handle: RePEc:ach:journl:y:2017:id:589
    DOI: 10.17073/2072-1633-2017-2-107-113
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ecoprom.misis.ru/jour/article/viewFile/589/548
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.17073/2072-1633-2017-2-107-113?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jae Kim & Geoffrey Hewings, 2012. "Integrating the fragmented regional and subregional socioeconomic forecasting and analysis: a spatial regional econometric input–output framework," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 49(2), pages 485-513, October.
    2. V. Senchagov., 2013. "On the Formation of a New Paradigm of Fiscal Policy," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 6.
    3. Sergio J. Rey, 2000. "articles: Integrated regional econometric+input-output modeling: Issues and opportunities," Papers in Regional Science, Springer;Regional Science Association International, vol. 79(3), pages 271-292.
    4. Sergio J. Rey, 1998. "The Performance of Alternative Integration Strategies for Combining Regional Econometric and Input-Output Models," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 21(1), pages 1-35, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ashkan Masouman & Charles Harvie, 2017. "Measuring Economic Change in the Illawarra, New South Wales: An Integrated Framework," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 50(3), pages 294-308, July.
    2. Cordier, Mateo & Uehara, Takuro & Weih, Jeffrey & Hamaide, Bertrand, 2017. "An Input-output Economic Model Integrated Within a System Dynamics Ecological Model: Feedback Loop Methodology Applied to Fish Nursery Restoration," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 46-57.
    3. Kijin Kim & Kurt Kratena & Geoffrey J.D. Hewings, 2015. "The Extended Econometric Input-Output Model With Heterogeneous Household Demand System," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(2), pages 257-285, June.
    4. Dan S. Rickman & Steven R. Miller & Russell McKenzie, 2009. "Spatial and sectoral linkages in regional models: A Bayesian vector autoregression forecast evaluation," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 88(1), pages 29-41, March.
    5. Fannin, J. Matthew & Hughes, David W. & Keithly, Walter R. & Olatubi, Williams O. & Guo, Jiemin, 2008. "Deepwater energy industry impacts on economic growth and public service provision in Lafourche Parish, Louisiana," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 190-205, September.
    6. Jae Hong Kim & Geoffrey J. D. Hewings, 2012. "An Application of the Disequilibrium Adjustment Framework to Small Area Forecasting and Impact Analysis," Advances in Spatial Science, in: Esteban Fernández Vázquez & Fernando Rubiera Morollón (ed.), Defining the Spatial Scale in Modern Regional Analysis, edition 127, chapter 0, pages 139-155, Springer.
    7. JunHo Yeo & David Holland, 2004. "Economic Growth in Washington: An Examination of Migration Response and a Test of Model Accuracy," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 27(2), pages 205-237, April.
    8. Goyal, Srishti & Llop, Maria, 2024. "The shipping industry under the EU Green Deal: An Input-Output impact analysis," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    9. Dan Wei and Adam Rose, 2014. "Macroeconomic Impacts of the California Global Warming Solutions Act on the Southern California Economy," Economics of Energy & Environmental Policy, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    10. Kirsten Svenja Wiebe & Eivind Lekve Bjelle & Johannes Többen & Richard Wood, 2018. "Implementing exogenous scenarios in a global MRIO model for the estimation of future environmental footprints," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 7(1), pages 1-18, December.
    11. Leatherman, John C. & Deller, Steven C., 2001. "Building Local Government Capacity: The Toolbox for Outreach Educators," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 31(01), pages 1-20.
    12. N. Mukhetdinova M. & Н. Мухетдинова М., 2014. "О Законодательном Обеспечении Формирования Современной Системы Стратегического Планирования В России // Legal Support Of The Formation Of A Modern Strategic Planning System In Russia," Финансы: теория и практика/Finance: Theory and Practice // Finance: Theory and Practice, ФГОБУВО Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации // Financial University under The Government of Russian Federation, issue 2, pages 93-101.
    13. Andrzej Toroj, 2018. "Generation of regional input-output tables: a spatial econometric approach with illustrative simulations for France,Germany and Poland," KAE Working Papers 2018-037, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.
    14. Nils May & Øivind A. Nilsen, 2019. "The Local Economic Impact of Wind Power Deployment," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 75(1), pages 56-92.
    15. Randall Jackson & Sergio Rey & Péter Járosi, 2016. "Object Orientation, Open Regional Science,and Cumulative Knowledge Building," Working Papers Working Paper 2016-02, Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University.
    16. Haitao Yu, 2018. "A review of input–output models on multisectoral modelling of transportation–economic linkages," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(5), pages 654-677, September.
    17. Berka, Anna L. & Creamer, Emily, 2018. "Taking stock of the local impacts of community owned renewable energy: A review and research agenda," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 82(P3), pages 3400-3419.
    18. Jae Hong Kim & Jongho Won, 2024. "Exploring variations in local land use regulations in the U.S.: What matters and at what level?," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 73(3), pages 1071-1095, October.
    19. Jean, Sébastien & Laborde, David, 2004. "The impact of multilateral liberalisation on European regions: a CGE assessment," Conference papers 331300, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    20. Chris Bachmann, 2019. "Calibrating and Applying Random-Utility-Based Multiregional Input–Output Models for Real-World Applications," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 219-242, March.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ach:journl:y:2017:id:589. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Главный контакт редакции (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://misis.ru .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.