Assessing Food Availability Potential in the Drylands of South Punjab

Introduction/Importance of Study:In South Punjab, Pakistan, unpredictable weather patterns and a heavy reliance on rain-fed agriculture pose significant challenges to food security. This study investigates how climatic variability affects food security in the region.Objective:To evaluate the impact of climate variability on the per capita availability of wheat and rice in the districts of Bahawalpur, Rahim Yar Khan, and Rajanpur in South Punjab, Pakistan, from 1991 to 2021.Novelty Statement:This study provides a unique analysis of the effects of climatic factors on food security in this under-researched region, offering a novel quantification of per capita wheat and rice availability over a three-decade period.Material and Method:Temperature and precipitation data were sourced from the CHIRPS and APHRODITE datasets. Data on rice and wheat production were obtained from the Crop Reporting Service. The study assessed per capita availability of wheat and rice and explored correlationsbetween climate data and farmer experiences.Result and Discussion:From 1991 to 2021, per capita availability of wheat and rice fluctuated across Bahawalpur, Rahim Yar Khan, and Rajanpur districts. Key factors influencing these variations included population growth, water scarcity, extreme weather events, and climate variability. Surveys of farmers revealed the challenges they face in adapting to changing climatic conditions.Concluding Remarks:Climate variability poses a significant threat to food security in South Punjab. Ensuring long-term food security in the region will require advancements in climate-smart agriculture, improved water management, and the implementation of early warning systems.