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Political elections and the resolution of uncertainty: The international evidence

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Cited by:

  1. Christoph Moser & Axel Dreher, 2010. "Do Markets Care about Central Bank Governor Changes? Evidence from Emerging Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(8), pages 1589-1612, December.
  2. Refk Selmi & Jamal Bouoiyour, 2020. "The financial costs of political uncertainty: Evidence from the 2016 US presidential elections," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 67(2), pages 166-185, May.
  3. Doriana Cucinelli & Vincenzo Farina & Paola Schwizer & Maria Gaia Soana, 2021. "Better the Devil You Know: The Impact of Brexit Political Uncertainty on European Financial Markets," International Journal of Business and Management, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 15(6), pages 1-62, July.
  4. David Le Bris, 2012. "Stock Returns, Governments and Market Foresight in France, 1871-2008," Working Papers CEB 12-007, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  5. Marie‐Claude Beaulieu & Jean‐Claude Cosset & Naceur Essaddam, 2006. "Political uncertainty and stock market returns: evidence from the 1995 Quebec referendum," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(2), pages 621-642, May.
  6. Martínez, Juan & Santiso, Javier, 2003. "Financial Markets and Politics: The Confidence Game in Latin American Emerging Economies," MPRA Paper 12909, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Martin Lausegger, 2021. "Stock markets in turmoil: political institutions and the impact of elections," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(1), pages 172-204, March.
  8. He, Yan & Lin, Hai & Wu, Chunchi & Dufrene, Uric B., 2009. "The 2000 presidential election and the information cost of sensitive versus non-sensitive S&P 500 stocks," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 54-86, February.
  9. Andrea Mattozzi, 2010. "Policy Uncertainty, Electoral Securities, And Redistribution," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 51(1), pages 45-71, February.
  10. Delia DiaconaÅŸu & Seyed Mehdian & Ovidiu Stoica, 2023. "The Global Stock Market Reactions to the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(2), pages 21582440231, June.
  11. Carvalho, Augusto & Guimaraes, Bernardo, 2018. "State-controlled companies and political risk: Evidence from the 2014 Brazilian election," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 66-78.
  12. Nathan Jensen, 2007. "International institutions and market expectations: Stock price responses to the WTO ruling on the 2002 U.S. steel tariffs," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 2(3), pages 261-280, September.
  13. Marcelin, Isaac & Stephen, Sheryl-Ann K. & Fanta, Fassil & Tecklezion, Mussie, 2019. "Political regimes, investment and electoral uncertainty," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 580-599.
  14. Bree J. Lang & Pratish Patel, 2023. "Funding infrastructure under uncertainty: evidence from tax credit prices," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 30(3), pages 635-677, June.
  15. Eichler, Stefan & Plaga, Timo, 2020. "The economic record of the government and sovereign bond and stock returns around national elections," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
  16. Block, Steven A. & Vaaler, Paul M., 2004. "The price of democracy: sovereign risk ratings, bond spreads and political business cycles in developing countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 917-946, October.
  17. Kilic, Bilal & Ucler, Caglar, 2019. "Stress among ab-initio pilots: A model of contributing factors by AHP," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 1-1.
  18. Jamal Bouoiyour, Refk Selmi, 2018. "Are UK industries resilient in dealing with uncertainty? The case of Brexit," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 15(2), pages 277-292, December.
  19. Faridah Najuna Misman & Shashazrina Roslan & Muhammad Izzat Mat Aladin, 2020. "General Election and Stock Market Performance: A Malaysian Case," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 11(3), pages 139-145, June.
  20. Chan, Kam Fong & Gray, Philip & Gray, Stephen & Zhong, Angel, 2020. "Political uncertainty, market anomalies and Presidential honeymoons," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
  21. Dao, Thong M. & McGroarty, Frank & Urquhart, Andrew, 2019. "The Brexit vote and currency markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 153-164.
  22. repec:wyi:journl:002085 is not listed on IDEAS
  23. Huang, Tao & Wu, Fei & Yu, Jing & Zhang, Bohui, 2015. "International political risk and government bond pricing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 393-405.
  24. Julia Darby & Jun Gao & Siobhan Lucey & Sheng Zhu, 2019. "Is heightened political uncertainty priced in stock returns? Evidence from the 2014 Scottish independence referendum," Working Papers 1913, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
  25. Bryan Kelly & Ľuboš Pástor & Pietro Veronesi, 2016. "The Price of Political Uncertainty: Theory and Evidence from the Option Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(5), pages 2417-2480, October.
  26. Mr. Sanjeev Gupta & Mr. Amine Mati & Mr. Emanuele Baldacci, 2008. "Is it (Still) Mostly Fiscal? Determinants of Sovereign Spreads in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 2008/259, International Monetary Fund.
  27. Alexander Opitz, 2018. "“Comrades, Let's March!”.† The Revolution of 1905 and its impact on financial markets," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 22(1), pages 28-52.
  28. Gong, Xu & Fu, Chengbo & Huang, Qiping & Lin, Meimei, 2022. "International political uncertainty and climate risk in the stock market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
  29. Bilal Ahmed Memon & Hongxing Yao & Rabia Tahir, 2020. "General election effect on the network topology of Pakistan’s stock market: network-based study of a political event," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 6(1), pages 1-14, December.
  30. Pham, Huy Nguyen Anh & Ramiah, Vikash & Moosa, Nisreen & Huynh, Tam & Pham, Nhi, 2018. "The financial effects of Trumpism," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 264-274.
  31. C. Justin Robinson & Prosper Bangwayo-Skeete, 2017. "Parliamentary Elections and Frontier Stock Markets: Evidence from Stock Market Reaction to General Elections in the Commonwealth Caribbean," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 18(5), pages 1077-1088, October.
  32. Zhu, Qi & Jin, Sisi & Huang, Yuxuan & Yan, Cheng, 2022. "Oil price uncertainty and stock price informativeness: Evidence from listed U.S. companies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
  33. Imlak Shaikh, 2019. "The U.S. Presidential Election 2012/2016 and Investors’ Sentiment: The Case of CBOE Market Volatility Index," SAGE Open, , vol. 9(3), pages 21582440198, July.
  34. Bialkowski, Jedrzej & Gottschalk, Katrin & Wisniewski, Tomasz Piotr, 2008. "Stock market volatility around national elections," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1941-1953, September.
  35. Jamal Bouoiyour & Refk Selmi, 2016. "The Price of Political Uncertainty: Evidence from the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election and the U.S. Stock Markets," Papers 1612.06200, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2017.
  36. Auld, T., 2022. "Betting and financial markets are cointegrated on election night," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2263, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  37. Ghulam Ghouse & Aribah Aslam & Muhammad Ishaq Bhatti, 2021. "Role of Islamic Banking during COVID-19 on Political and Financial Events: Application of Impulse Indicator Saturation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-17, October.
  38. Graham, Roger C. & Morrill, Cameron K.J. & Morrill, Janet B., 2012. "Does it matter where assets are held and income is derived? Further evidence of differential value relevance from Quebec," Journal of International Accounting, Auditing and Taxation, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 185-197.
  39. Yi-Hsien Wang & Chin-Tsai Lin, 2008. "Empirical analysis of political uncertainty on TAIEX stock market," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(7), pages 545-550.
  40. Marek Szymański & Grzegorz Wojtalik, 2022. "Wpływ wyborów politycznych na ceny akcji na Giełdzie Papierów Wartościowych w Warszawie," Ekonomista, Polskie Towarzystwo Ekonomiczne, issue 3, pages 290-306.
  41. Tihana Škrinjarić, 2021. "Profiting on the Stock Market in Pandemic Times: Study of COVID-19 Effects on CESEE Stock Markets," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(17), pages 1-20, August.
  42. Ghulam Ghouse & Muhammad Ishaq Bhatti & Muhammad Hassam Shahid, 2022. "Impact of COVID-19, Political, and Financial Events on the Performance of Commercial Banking Sector," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-18, April.
  43. Andrea Mattozzi, 2008. "Can we insure against political uncertainty? Evidence from the U.S. stock market," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 137(1), pages 43-55, October.
  44. Lee A. Smales, 2017. "“Brexit”: A Case Study in the Relationship Between Political and Financial Market Uncertainty," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 17(3), pages 451-459, September.
  45. Rui Fan & Oleksandr Talavera & Vu Tran, 2020. "Social media, political uncertainty, and stock markets," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1137-1153, October.
  46. Daniel Perico Ortiz, 2023. "Economic policy statements, social media, and stock market uncertainty: An analysis of Donald Trump’s tweets," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 47(2), pages 333-367, June.
  47. Dopke, Jorg & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2006. "Politics and the stock market: Evidence from Germany," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 925-943, December.
  48. Tomasz Piotr Wisniewski & Brendan John Lambe & Alexandra Dias, 2020. "The Influence of General Strikes against Government on Stock Market Behavior," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 67(1), pages 72-99, February.
  49. Jamal Bouoiyour & Refk Selmi, 2017. "Political elections and uncertainty -Are BRICS markets equally exposed to Trump's agenda?," Papers 1701.02182, arXiv.org.
  50. Kurov, Alexander & Wolfe, Marketa Halova & Gilbert, Thomas, 2021. "The disappearing pre-FOMC announcement drift," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 40(C).
  51. Qadan, Mahmoud & Idilbi, Yasmeen, 2022. "Presidential honeymoons, political cycles and the commodity market," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
  52. Smales, Lee A., 2015. "Better the devil you know: The influence of political incumbency on Australian financial market uncertainty," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 59-74.
  53. Bülent Köksal & Ahmet Çalışkan, 2012. "Political Business Cycles and Partisan Politics: Evidence from a Developing Economy," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(2), pages 182-199, July.
  54. Chin-Tsai Lin & Yi-Hsien Wang, 2007. "The impact of party alternative on the stock market: the case of Japan," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(1), pages 79-85.
  55. Fareiny Morni & Erimalida Yazi, 2021. "Stock Market Reaction to Political Regime Change in Malaysia," Capital Markets Review, Malaysian Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 1-11.
  56. Wisniewski, Tomasz Piotr, 2016. "Is there a link between politics and stock returns? A literature survey," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 15-23.
  57. John Goodell & Richard Bodey, 2012. "Price-earnings changes during US presidential election cycles: voter uncertainty and other determinants," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 150(3), pages 633-650, March.
  58. Anya Khanthavit, 2020. "An Event Study Analysis of Thailand¡¯s 2019 General Election: A Long Window of Multiple Sub-events," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 11(4), pages 502-514, July.
  59. Yan He & Hai Lin & Chunchi Wu & Uric B. Dufrene, 2013. "The 2000 presidential election and the information cost of sensitive versus," Working Papers 2013-10-14, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.
  60. Chin-Tsai Lin & Yi-Hsien Wang, 2005. "An Analysis of Political Changes on Nikkei 225 Stock Returns and Volatilities," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 6(1), pages 169-183, May.
  61. Chien‐Chiang Lee & Chi‐Chuan Lee & Donald Lien, 2019. "Do country risk and financial uncertainty matter for energy commodity futures?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(3), pages 366-383, March.
  62. Araniyar C. Isukul & John J. Chizea, 2015. "Environmental Factors Influencing Corporate Governance," SAGE Open, , vol. 5(2), pages 21582440155, May.
  63. Gábor Kutasi & László György & Krisztina Szabó, 2018. "Behavioural Factors in the Hungarian Retail Government Bond Market," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 17(1), pages 110-136.
  64. Shaikh, Imlak, 2017. "The 2016 U.S. presidential election and the Stock, FX and VIX markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 546-563.
  65. Pástor, Ľuboš & Veronesi, Pietro, 2013. "Political uncertainty and risk premia," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(3), pages 520-545.
  66. Mnasri, Ayman & Essaddam, Naceur, 2021. "Impact of U.S. presidential elections on stock markets’ volatility: Does incumbent president's party matter?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
  67. Goodell, John W. & Vähämaa, Sami, 2013. "US presidential elections and implied volatility: The role of political uncertainty," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1108-1117.
  68. Yaser Abolghasemi & Stanko Dimitrov, 2021. "Determining the causality between U.S. presidential prediction markets and global financial markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 4534-4556, July.
  69. Pau Castells & Francesc Trillas, 2008. "Political parties and the economy: Macro convergence, micro partisanship?," Working Papers 2008/1, Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB).
  70. Tai-Ning Yang, 2013. "The impact of resumption of former top executives on stock prices: an event study approach," Journal of Business Economics and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 292-302, April.
  71. Pástor, Ľuboš & Veronesi, Pietro, 2013. "Political uncertainty and risk premia," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(3), pages 520-545.
  72. C. Justin Robinson & Prosper Bangwayo-Skeete, 2017. "Semi-strong Form Market Efficiency in Stock Markets with Low Levels of Trading Activity: Evidence from Stock Price Reaction to Major National and International Events," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 18(6), pages 1447-1464, December.
  73. repec:rre:publsh:v:36:y:2006:i:3:p:427-47 is not listed on IDEAS
  74. Fan Wang, 2018. "Elections, Political Control and Duration of Stock Market Cycles," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201810, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2018.
  75. Tielmann, Artur & Schiereck, Dirk, 2017. "Arising borders and the value of logistic companies: Evidence from the Brexit referendum in Great Britain," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 22-28.
  76. Civilize, Sireethorn & Wongchoti, Udomsak & Young, Martin, 2015. "Military regimes and stock market performance," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 76-95.
  77. Dervis Kirikkaleli & Kelvin Onyibor, 2020. "The Effects of Financial and Political Risks on Economic Risk in Southern European Countries: A Dynamic Panel Analysis," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 11(1), pages 381-393, January.
  78. Pau Castells & Francesc Trillas, 2008. "Political parties and the economy: Macro convergence, micro partisanship?," Working Papers 2008/1, Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB).
  79. Marshall, Ben R. & Nguyen, Hung T. & Nguyen, Nhut H. & Visaltanachoti, Nuttawat, 2021. "Country governance and international equity returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
  80. Yi-Hsien Wang & Chin-Tsai Lin, 2009. "The political uncertainty and stock market behavior in emerging democracy: the case of Taiwan," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 43(2), pages 237-248, March.
  81. Girardi, Daniele & Bowles, Samuel, 2018. "Institution shocks and economic outcomes: Allende's election, Pinochet's coup and the Santiago stock market," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 16-27.
  82. Smales, Lee A., 2014. "Political uncertainty and financial market uncertainty in an Australian context," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 415-435.
  83. Lehkonen, Heikki & Heimonen, Kari, 2015. "Democracy, political risks and stock market performance," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 77-99.
  84. Samar Ashour & David A. Rakowski & Salil K. Sarkar, 2019. "U.S. presidential cycles and the foreign exchange market," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(4), pages 523-540, October.
  85. Stephens, John & Mehdian, Seyed & Gherghina, Ștefan Cristian & Stoica, Ovidiu, 2023. "The reaction of the financial market to the January 6 United States Capitol attack: An intraday study," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
  86. K. Arin & Alexander Molchanov & Otto Reich, 2013. "Politics, stock markets, and model uncertainty," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 23-38, August.
  87. Deari Fitim & Koku Paul Sergius, 2024. "Do Local Political Elections Affect Daily Stock Returns? Evidence from the Republic of North Macedonia's MBI10 Index," Studia Universitatis „Vasile Goldis” Arad – Economics Series, Sciendo, vol. 34(1), pages 98-116, March.
  88. Luciana Simion & Georgiana-Loredana Schipor, 2020. "Financial Market Reactions to the Political Uncertainty. Study Case: Romania," Ovidius University Annals, Economic Sciences Series, Ovidius University of Constantza, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 0(2), pages 1072-1080, December.
  89. Moser, Christoph, 2007. "The Impact of Political Risk on Sovereign Bond Spreads - Evidence from Latin America," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Göttingen 2007 24, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
  90. Cheng, Xu & Kong, Dongmin & Wang, Junbo, 2021. "Political uncertainty and A-H share premium," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
  91. Kwabi, Frank Obenpong & Boateng, Agyenim & Wonu, Chizindu & Kariuki, Charles & Du, Anna, 2023. "Political uncertainty and cross-border equity portfolio allocation decisions: International evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
  92. Auld, T., 2022. "Political markets as equity price factors," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2264, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  93. Doriana Cucinelli & Paola Schwizer & Maria Gaia Soana, 2023. "Brexit and the Banking Sector: The Stock Market Reaction of UK and European Banks," International Journal of Business and Management, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 16(4), pages 1-27, February.
  94. Huong Dang, 2014. "How dimensions of national culture and institutional characteristics influence sovereign rating migration dynamics," ZenTra Working Papers in Transnational Studies 42 / 2014, ZenTra - Center for Transnational Studies.
  95. Ziemowit Bednarek & Jacqueline Doremus & Sarah Stith, 2021. "U.S. Cannabis Laws Projected to Cost Generic and Brand Pharmaceutical Firms Billions," Working Papers 2102, California Polytechnic State University, Department of Economics.
  96. Liu, Jiapeng & Tao, Qizhi & Hou, Wenxuan & Zhang, Ting, 2016. "Systematic risk, government policy intervention, and dynamic contrarian investments," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 334-343.
  97. Perico Ortiz, Daniel, 2021. "The high frequency impact of economic policy narratives on stock market uncertainty," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 02/2021, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.
  98. Pau Castells & Francesc Trillas, 2013. "The effects of surprise political events on quoted firms: the March 2004 election in Spain," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 83-112, March.
  99. A.E. Osuala & U.A. Onoh & G.U. Nwansi, 2018. "Presidential Election Results and Stock Market Performance: Evidence From Nigeria," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 5(2), pages 117-124, March.
  100. Dervis Kirikkaleli & Andrew Adewale Alola, 2023. "The regime switching evidence of financial-economic-political risk in Turkey," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 57(4), pages 3747-3762, August.
  101. Pandey, Vivek & Steigner, Tanja & Sutton, Ninon K., 2023. "The value of economic freedom in cross-border mergers," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 540-563.
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