IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cpl/wpaper/2102.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

U.S. Cannabis Laws Projected to Cost Generic and Brand Pharmaceutical Firms Billions

Author

Listed:
  • Ziemowit Bednarek

    (Department of Finance California Polytechnic State University)

  • Jacqueline Doremus

    (Department of Economics, California Polytechnic State University)

  • Sarah Stith

    (Department of Economics, University of New Mexico)

Abstract

Legalization of cannabis by U.S. states is likely increasing the use of cannabis as an alternative to conventional pharmaceutical drugs. We examined how cannabis legalization between 1996 and 2019 affected stock market returns for listed generic and brand pharmaceutical companies and found that returns were 1.5-2% lower at 10 days after legalization. Returns decreased in response to both medical and recreational legalization, for both generic and brand drugmakers. Investors anticipate a single legalization event to reduce drugmaker annual sales by $3B on average.

Suggested Citation

  • Ziemowit Bednarek & Jacqueline Doremus & Sarah Stith, 2021. "U.S. Cannabis Laws Projected to Cost Generic and Brand Pharmaceutical Firms Billions," Working Papers 2102, California Polytechnic State University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpl:wpaper:2102
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cob.calpoly.edu/economics/wp-content/uploads/sites/27/2021/06/paper2102.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2021
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pantzalis, Christos & Stangeland, David A. & Turtle, Harry J., 2000. "Political elections and the resolution of uncertainty: The international evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(10), pages 1575-1604, October.
    2. Richard G. Frank & David S. Salkever, 1997. "Generic Entry and the Pricing of Pharmaceuticals," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(1), pages 75-90, March.
    3. Wagner, Alexander F. & Zeckhauser, Richard & Ziegler, Alexandre, 2017. "Company Stock Reactions to the 2016 Election Shock: Trump, Taxes and Trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 11837, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. "On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    5. David O. Lucca & Emanuel Moench, 2015. "The Pre-FOMC Announcement Drift," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(1), pages 329-371, February.
    6. Jacqueline M. Doremus & Sarah S. Stith & Jacob M. Vigil, 2020. "Off-label use of recreational cannabis: Acid reflux in Colorado," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(1), pages 338-348.
    7. Myron J. Gordon & Eli Shapiro, 1956. "Capital Equipment Analysis: The Required Rate of Profit," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 3(1), pages 102-110, October.
    8. Castanheira, Micael & Ornaghi, Carmine & Siotis, Georges, 2019. "The unexpected consequences of generic entry," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    9. Boehmer, Ekkehart & Masumeci, Jim & Poulsen, Annette B., 1991. "Event-study methodology under conditions of event-induced variance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 253-272, December.
    10. Barberis, Nicholas & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert, 1998. "A model of investor sentiment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 307-343, September.
    11. Grabowski, Henry G & Vernon, John M, 1992. "Brand Loyalty, Entry, and Price Competition in Pharmaceuticals after the 1984 Drug Act," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 35(2), pages 331-350, October.
    12. Powell, David & Pacula, Rosalie Liccardo & Jacobson, Mireille, 2018. "Do medical marijuana laws reduce addictions and deaths related to pain killers?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 29-42.
    13. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, September.
    14. Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2005. "Information Leakage and Market Efficiency," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(2), pages 417-457.
    15. Padmaja Kadiyala, 2004. "Investor Reaction to Corporate Event Announcements: Underreaction or Overreaction?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 77(2), pages 357-386, April.
    16. Brown, Stephen J. & Warner, Jerold B., 1980. "Measuring security price performance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 205-258, September.
    17. Wen, Hefei & Hockenberry, Jason M. & Cummings, Janet R., 2015. "The effect of medical marijuana laws on adolescent and adult use of marijuana, alcohol, and other substances," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 64-80.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dionysia Dionysiou, 2015. "Choosing Among Alternative Long-Run Event-Study Techniques," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 158-198, February.
    2. Panayiotis Papakyriacou & George Nishiotis & Andreas Milidonis & Alex Michaelides, 2012. "Sovereign Debt Rating Changes and the Stock Market," 2012 Meeting Papers 522, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Nicolau, Juan Luis & Sharma, Abhinav, 2022. "A review of research into drivers of firm value through event studies in tourism and hospitality: Launching the Annals of Tourism Research curated collection on drivers of firm value through event stu," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    4. Stephen X. H. Gong, 2008. "Event Study in Transport Research: Methodology and Applications," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(2), pages 207-222, May.
    5. Eero Pätäri & Timo Leivo, 2017. "A Closer Look At Value Premium: Literature Review And Synthesis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 79-168, February.
    6. Kobana Abukari & Isaac Otchere, 2020. "Dominance of hybrid contratum strategies over momentum and contrarian strategies: half a century of evidence," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 34(4), pages 471-505, December.
    7. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, December.
    8. Abderrazak Dhaoui & Nesrine Bensalah, 2017. "Asset valuation impact of investor sentiment: A revised Fama–French five-factor model," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 18(1), pages 16-28, January.
    9. Bryan Kelly & Alexander Ljungqvist, 2012. "Testing Asymmetric-Information Asset Pricing Models," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(5), pages 1366-1413.
    10. Massimiliano Castellani & Pierpaolo Pattitoni & Roberto Patuelli, 2015. "Abnormal Returns of Soccer Teams," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 16(7), pages 735-759, October.
    11. J. Christian Ola & Eric Sartell, 2016. "Undercover Boss: Stripping Away the Disguise to Analyze the Financial Performance of Participating Firm," Business, Management and Economics Research, Academic Research Publishing Group, vol. 2(12), pages 186-192, 12-2016.
    12. Schwert, G. William, 2003. "Anomalies and market efficiency," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 15, pages 939-974, Elsevier.
    13. Oberndorfer, Ulrich & Schmidt, Peter & Wagner, Marcus & Ziegler, Andreas, 2013. "Does the stock market value the inclusion in a sustainability stock index? An event study analysis for German firms," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 66(3), pages 497-509.
    14. Lu Zhang, 2017. "The Investment CAPM," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 23(4), pages 545-603, September.
    15. David M. Goldberg & Jason K. Deane & Terry R. Rakes & Loren Paul Rees, 2022. "3D Printing Technology and the Market Value of the Firm," Information Systems Frontiers, Springer, vol. 24(4), pages 1379-1392, August.
    16. Fredj Jawadi & Georges Prat, 2017. "Equity prices and fundamentals: a DDM–APT mixed approach," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 49(3), pages 661-695, October.
    17. Ramiah, Vikash & Xu, Xiaoming & Moosa, Imad A., 2015. "Neoclassical finance, behavioral finance and noise traders: A review and assessment of the literature," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 89-100.
    18. Kent Daniel & David Hirshleifer & Lin Sun, 2020. "Short- and Long-Horizon Behavioral Factors," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(4), pages 1673-1736.
    19. Kothari, S. P., 2001. "Capital markets research in accounting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-3), pages 105-231, September.
    20. Charles Chevalier & Serge Darolles, 2019. "Trends everywhere? The case of hedge fund styles," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 20(6), pages 442-468, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    cannabis; marijuana; prescription drugs; stock market;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I11 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Analysis of Health Care Markets
    • I13 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Insurance, Public and Private
    • L10 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpl:wpaper:2102. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Matthew Cole (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/decplus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.