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Foreign Bank Entry into Emerging Economies: An Empirical Assessment of the Determinants and Risks Predicated on German FDI Data

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  • Wezel, Torsten
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    Abstract

    The paper investigates the factors crucial in the locational decisions of multinational German banks in selected emerging markets of central and eastern Europe, Latin America and Asia between 1994 and 2001. Emphasis is placed on testing variables of macroeconomic and financial sector risk along with measures of bank-client integration and host country market characteristics. Results indicate that FDI by non-banks exerted a strong pull effect on banking FDI flows, as did highly developed financial markets and a low country risk. No particularly meaningful effects are found in the sample for per capita GDP or trade linkages. A strong case can be made for a variable taken from the "early warning indicators" literature which measures the backing of short-term banking deposits by international currency reserves. In almost all regressions, this financial crisis variable turns out be highly negatively correlated with FDI flows. Disaggregation of the sample by region illustrates that the factors which are at work differ between the continents. Comparing pre- and post-Asian-crisis time periods, it is found that both variables of country riskiness gain significance in the later sub-sample, with the result being especially pronounced for the measure of financial vulnerability. --

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre in its series Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies with number 2004,01.

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    Date of creation: 2004
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    Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdp1:1542

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    Keywords: foreign direct investment; banks; emerging markets; macroeconomic risk;

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    1. Focarelli, Dario & Pozzolo, Alberto Franco, 2001. "The patterns of cross-border bank mergers and shareholdings in OECD countries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(12), pages 2305-2337, December.
    2. Williams, Barry, 1997. " Positive Theories of Multinational Banking: Eclectic Theory versus Internalisation Theory," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(1), pages 71-100, March.
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    7. Goldberg, Lawrence G. & Johnson, Denise, 1990. "The determinants of US banking activity abroad," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 123-137, June.
    8. Brealey, R. A. & Kaplanis, E. C., 1996. "The determination of foreign banking location," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 577-597, August.
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    15. Clarke, George & Cull, Robert & Martinez Peria, Maria Soledad & Sanchez, Susana M., 2001. "Foreign bank entry - experience, implications for developing countries, and agenda for further research," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2698, The World Bank.
    16. Lipponer, Alexander & Buch, Claudia M., 2004. "Clustering or competition? The foreign investment behaviour of German banks," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,06, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
    17. Arturo Galindo & Alejandro Micco & César Manuel Serra, 2003. "Better the Devil that You Know: Evidence on Entry Costs Faced by Foreign Banks," Research Department Publications 4313, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    18. Manijeh Sabi, 1988. "An Application of the Theory of Foreign Direct Investment to Multinational Banking in LDCs," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 19(3), pages 433-447, September.
    19. Yamori, Nobuyoshi, 1998. "A note on the location choice of multinational banks: The case of Japanese financial institutions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 109-120, January.
    20. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "Staying Afloat When the Wind Shifts: External Factors and Emerging-Market Banking Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 1828, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    23. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 1998. "The Determinants of Banking Crises in Developing and Developed Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 81-109, March.
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    Cited by:
    1. Cerutti, Eugenio & Dell'Ariccia, Giovanni & Martinez Peria, Maria Soledad, 2007. "How banks go abroad: Branches or subsidiaries?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1669-1692, June.
    2. Clarke, George R.G. & Cull, Robert & Martinez Peria, Maria Soledad, 2006. "Foreign bank participation and access to credit across firms in developing countries," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 774-795, December.
    3. Battilossi, Stefano, . "The determinants of multinational banking during the First Globalization, 1870-1914," Open Access publications from Universidad Carlos III de Madrid info:hdl:10016/5527, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid.
    4. Alicia Garcia-Herrero & Maria Soledad Martinez Peria, 2005. "The mix of international bank's foreign claims. Determinants and implications," Working Papers 0502, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    5. Emilia Magdalena Jurzyk & Olena Havrylchyk, 2010. "Inherited or Earned? Performance of Foreign Banks in Central and Eastern Europe," IMF Working Papers 10/4, International Monetary Fund.

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