Removing systematic patterns in returns in a financial market model by artificially intelligent traders
AbstractThe unpredictability of returns counts as a stylized fact of financial markets. To reproduce this fact, modelers usually implement noise terms - a method with several downsides. Above all, systematic patterns are not eliminated but merely blurred. The present article introduces a model in which systematic patterns are removed endogenously. This is achieved in a reality-oriented way: Intelligent traders are able to identify patterns and exploit them. To identify and predict patterns, a very simple artificial neural network is used. As neural network mimic the cognitive processes of the human brain, this method might be regarded as a quite accurate way of how traders identify patterns and forecast prices in reality. The simulation experiments show that the artificial traders exploit patterns effectively and thereby remove them, which ultimately leads to the unpredictability of prices. Further results relate to the influence of pattern exploiters on market efficiency. --
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group in its series BERG Working Paper Series with number 82.
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
financial markets; autocorrelations; artificial intelligence; agent-based modeling;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics
- G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
- G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
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