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Fuzzy inductive reasoning, expectation formation and the behavior of security prices

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  • Tay, Nicholas S. P.
  • Linn, Scott C.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.

Volume (Year): 25 (2001)
Issue (Month): 3-4 (March)
Pages: 321-361

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Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:25:y:2001:i:3-4:p:321-361

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References

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  1. Marcet, Albert & Sargent, Thomas J, 1989. "Convergence of Least-Squares Learning in Environments with Hidden State Variables and Private Information," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(6), pages 1306-22, December.
  2. repec:att:wimass:9621 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. LeBaron, Blake & Arthur, W. Brian & Palmer, Richard, 1999. "Time series properties of an artificial stock market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 23(9-10), pages 1487-1516, September.
  4. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-70, March.
  5. Gerard Gennotte and Hayne Leland., 1989. "Market Liquidity, Hedging and Crashes," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-192, University of California at Berkeley.
  6. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
  7. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
  8. Robert J. Shiller, 1984. "Stock Prices and Social Dynamics," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 15(2), pages 457-510.
  9. Arthur, W Brian, 1991. "Designing Economic Agents that Act Like Human Agents: A Behavioral Approach to Bounded Rationality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(2), pages 353-59, May.
  10. Jacklin, Charles J & Kleidon, Allan W & Pfleiderer, Paul, 1992. "Underestimation of Portfolio Insurance and the Crash of October 1987," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(1), pages 35-63.
  11. De Long, J Bradford, et al, 1990. " Positive Feedback Investment Strategies and Destabilizing Rational Speculation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 379-95, June.
  12. Robert J. Shiller, 1984. "Stock Prices and Social Dynamics," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 719R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  13. W. Brian Arthur, 1992. "On Learning and Adaptation in the Economy," Working Papers 854, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  14. Marcet, Albert & Sargent, Thomas J., 1989. "Convergence of least squares learning mechanisms in self-referential linear stochastic models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 337-368, August.
  15. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
  16. Sargent, Thomas J., 1991. "Equilibrium with signal extraction from endogenous variables," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 245-273, April.
  17. LeRoy, Stephen F & Porter, Richard D, 1981. "The Present-Value Relation: Tests Based on Implied Variance Bounds," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 555-74, May.
  18. Arthur, W Brian, 1994. "Inductive Reasoning and Bounded Rationality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(2), pages 406-11, May.
  19. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
  20. Bray, Margaret, 1982. "Learning, estimation, and the stability of rational expectations," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 318-339, April.
  21. De Long, J Bradford, et al, 1989. " The Size and Incidence of the Losses from Noise Trading," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(3), pages 681-96, July.
  22. Shleifer, Andrei & Summers, Lawrence H, 1990. "The Noise Trader Approach to Finance," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 19-33, Spring.
  23. LeBaron, Blake, 2000. "Agent-based computational finance: Suggested readings and early research," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(5-7), pages 679-702, June.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Shu-Heng Chen & Chung-Ching Tai, 2006. "On the Selection of Adaptive Algorithms in ABM: A Computational-Equivalence Approach," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 28(1), pages 51-69, August.
  2. Leigh Tesfatsion, 2002. "Agent-Based Computational Economics," Computational Economics 0203001, EconWPA, revised 15 Aug 2002.
  3. Gradojevic, Nikola, 2007. "Non-linear, hybrid exchange rate modeling and trading profitability in the foreign exchange market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 557-574, February.
  4. Shu-Heng Chen & Chung-Ching Tai, 2006. "Republication: On the Selection of Adaptive Algorithms in ABM: A Computational-Equivalence Approach," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 28(4), pages 313-331, November.
  5. Tesfatsion, Leigh S., 2001. "Introduction to the Special Issue on Agent-Based Computational Economics," Staff General Research Papers 10038, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  6. Steinbacher, Matjaz, 2008. "Stochastic Processes in Finance and Behavioral Finance," MPRA Paper 13603, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Ryuichi YAMAMOTO, 2005. "Evolution with Individual and Social Learning in an Agent-Based Stock Market," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 228, Society for Computational Economics.
  8. Jaqueson K. Galimberti & Sergio da Silva, 2012. "An empirical case against the use of genetic-based learning classifier systems as forecasting devices," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(1), pages 354-369.
  9. Smith, Peter, 2004. "Reworking the Standard Model of Competitive Markets: The Role of Fuzzy Logic and Genetic Algorithms in Modelling Complex Non-Linear Economic System," General Discussion Papers 30569, University of Manchester, Institute for Development Policy and Management (IDPM).
  10. Gradojevic, Nikola & Gençay, Ramazan, 2013. "Fuzzy logic, trading uncertainty and technical trading," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 578-586.
  11. Bekiros, Stelios D., 2010. "Heterogeneous trading strategies with adaptive fuzzy Actor-Critic reinforcement learning: A behavioral approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1153-1170, June.
  12. LeBaron, Blake, 2006. "Agent-based Computational Finance," Handbook of Computational Economics, in: Leigh Tesfatsion & Kenneth L. Judd (ed.), Handbook of Computational Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 24, pages 1187-1233 Elsevier.
  13. Brandouy, O., 2005. "Stock markets as Minority Games: cognitive heterogeneity and equilibrium emergence," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 349(1), pages 302-328.

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